SunSirs: Oct 14

On Oct 13, the Lead Commodity Index was 102.78, the same as that of yesterday, 23.30% lower than the peak of 134.01 in the cycle (Nov 29, 2016), and 37.72% higher than the lowest point of 74.63 (Mar 19, 2015). (Cycle: Sep 1, 2011 to date)

On Oct11, the dollar index fell to 98.188, the lowest level since Sep 20, mainly because of the optimistic prospect of Sino-US trade negotiations and the bright prospect of Britain's exit from Europe. The dollar index closed at 98.335, decreasing nearly 0.4%. In October, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting its interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.50%-1.75% is 75.4%, and the probability of maintaining the current interest rate is 24.6%. In December, the probability of reducing interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.50%-1.75% is 58.9%, the probability of reducing interest rate by 50 basis points is 24.5%. When it comes to the crude oil, the prices climbed to a two-week high, U.S. oil rose nearly 2% and Brent crude oil rose above 60USD. Affected by these, metals of LME rose and fell by half, ZSD increased over 2%, SND and PBD increased over 1%, CAD increased almost 0.4%, NID decreased almost 0.4%, AHD decreased almost 1.6%. The domestic metal market also rose and fell by half, PB and RB increased almost 0.7%, ZN and SS increased almost 0.5%, CU increased almost 0.4%, NI decreased slightly, SN decreased almost 0.1%, AL decreased almost 0.7%.

PBD trend: The opening price of PBD last Friday night was 2,152.5USD/t. In Asian trading, PBD was stable. In European trading, following by nonferrous metals, PBD increased as well, the highest price was 2,195USD/t, the highest one this year so far. The closing price was 2,177USD/t, increasing by 23USD/t (1.07%). Open interest increased 193 lots to 131,951 lots

PB trend: The opening price of PB1911 last Friday night was 16,930RMB/t. Encouraged by PBD, it went up to 17,065RMB/t, the closing price was 17,040RMB/t, 120RMB/t (0.71%) higher. Open interest increased 822 lots to 50,668 lots.

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