As of October 13, the price of SBR was 9533.33 RMB/ ton, up 4.47% from 9125.00 RMB/ ton at the beginning of the month. On October 12, the SBR commodity index was 29.60, down 71.43% from 103.60 (2011-09-08), and 16.95% higher than the lowest point of 25.31 on April 07, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Since October, China domestic rubber market continued to rise in September, and the ex-factory price of SBR and petrochemical increased, driving traders to follow. According to SunSirs, the ex-factory price of styrene butadiene 1502 of PetroChina Jilin Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was 9,400 RMB/ ton, which was 300 RMB/ ton higher than that at the end of September; the ex-factory price of Sinopec Yangzi styrene 1502 was at 9,300 RMB/ ton, up 300 RMB/ ton compared with the end of September.

SBR production is basically normal, supply side inventory pressure is not big. In addition, some enterprises have maintenance plans in October, so the atmosphere of market is strong. According to SunSirs, Bridgestone's styrene butadiene unit is planned to be shut down for maintenance for 50-55 days from October 23, and there is also a short-term maintenance plan for the styrene butadiene unit in Lanhua. The overall operating rate is expected to decline in October.

After entering the second half of the year, the production and sales of tire and automobile market showed a month by month increase. It is understood that according to the data of China Automobile Association, the automobile production and sales in September 2020 will reach 2.524 million and 2.655 million respectively, with a month on month increase of 19.1% and 17.4% respectively. From the current situation, the operating rate of downstream tire factories is expected to remain high in October, and the demand will form a certain support for SBR.

The high price of raw materials forms the cost support. Butadiene and styrene prices continued to rebound, and the cost side promoted the rise of SBR. According to the monitoring of SunSirs, as of October 12, the price of butadiene was 6,363 RMB/ ton; as of October 12, the price of styrene was 5,500 RMB/ ton, all of which were at a high stage.

Market forecast: SunSirs analysts believe that the current crude oil price fluctuates in a narrow range, and the prices of raw materials butadiene and styrene are high, forming a certain support for SBR. In addition, the peak season demand is good, and SBR will continue to maintain a high level in the future.

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