According to SunSirs price monitoring, as of October 21, the domestic average ex-factory price of 1.2D*38mm viscose staple fiber was 10,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,240 yuan/ton from the beginning of October, an increase of 13.54%, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.99%. In October, polyester staple fiber futures were listed on the daily limit for many times, boosting the textile market, and cotton and viscose staple fiber rose sharply in the middle. Many foreign textile orders are transferred to China, and the rebound in orders drives up the price of rayon yarn.

According to relevant data, the current domestic viscose staple fiber industry has a total production capacity of 5.18 million tons per year, and the operating rate so far is about 77%. At the same time, due to the continuous loss of the industry in the previous period, some companies have phased out production and the supply pressure has eased. Cotton has risen sharply due to weather and other factors, and the rebound in textile orders has led to a large return of staple fiber, which has increased by more than 1,000 in less than two weeks. However, the domestic cotton price has taken too much steps, and the increase has exceeded that of foreign cotton. The price advantage of imported cotton has been highlighted. The short-term domestic cotton price has stagnated, and the correction is mainly due to the correction. The staple fiber market is more wait and see. The mainstream price range is 10,000-10500 yuan/ton.

Focusing on upstream cotton linters, the supply pressure is offset by the benefit of raw material price increases. In October, the listing of polyester staple fiber immediately supported other fiber products. The price of lint has increased significantly, and the purchase price of seed cotton has risen. It is understood that as of October 20, 2020, the national average price of white cotton grade 3 seed cotton is 7.24 yuan/kg, and the cotton seed price is 2.52 yuan/kg. The purchase price of seed cotton continued to rise in October, and the cost of cotton linters should increase. However, with the increase in supply, the purchase of downstream chemical fiber plants is limited, and the price is basically stable.

As of October 21, the average ex-factory price of 30S rayon yarn in Shandong was 14,233 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,033 yuan/ton from the early October price, an increase of 7.83%, and a year-on-year decrease of 14.00%. The price of viscose staple fiber rose sharply in October, and the rayon yarn quotations followed closely, and the price increase was not much different. In September, although the price of rayon yarn rose slightly, the downstream demand was tepid and the price increase was difficult to sustain. In October, foreign textile orders were transferred to China, and market confidence was boosted. Prices continued to rise, but the rebound benefit might be overestimated, and it is expected to cool down.

SunSirs analysts believe that viscose staple fiber is expected to rise to this year's high when orders are picking up. Referring to the recent weak callback of cotton and polyester staple fiber, the price of viscose may not continue to rise, and it is expected that textile raw materials will usher in a correction period in the near future.

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