1. Rapeseed oil market price trend

According to SunSirs monitoring, the average price of rapeseed oil in early October was 9,415 yuan/ton, and the average price on October 29 was 9,960 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.79%.

2. Market analysis

On October 29, the quotations in Guangdong and Guangxi were around RMB 9,850-9,910/ton, the quotation in Anhui was RMB 10,000/ton, the quotation in Sichuan was RMB 10,280/ton, and the quotation in Jiangsu was RMB 9,980/ton. According to statistics, as of October 23, the rape oil inventory of Guangdong, Guangdong and Fujian oil plants was 43,100 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 8,400 tons, a decrease of 16.31%, and a decrease of 49.83% from 85,900 tons in the same period last year, which is the same period in the past years. The lowest level. At the same time, rape oil stocks in oil plants along the Yangtze River (Huawei Lake, Jiangxi, Chongqing) were 48,200 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 5,200 tons, which was also the lowest level in history, indicating that the rapeseed oil market is selling well and boosting the spot price of rapeseed oil. 

On October 29, China Grain Storage and Oils Company bid to purchase 18,000 tons of rapeseed oil. All transactions were completed. The increase in demand for rapeseed oil purchased by the State Reserve resulted in a tight supply of vegetable oil in the market and helped the price of vegetable oil continue to rise.

In terms of domestic rapeseed, the supply of domestic rapeseed is not much, and the downstream goods are better. The domestic rapeseed is mainly operated at high prices. In terms of imported rapeseed, according to customs data, in September 2020, domestic imports of rapeseed were 270,300 tons, an increase of 102.32% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 67.9%; from January to September, the cumulative import was 2,170,400 tons, an increase of 12.93% year-on-year. In addition, in September, the imported rape oil was 194,400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 51.9%; from January to September, the cumulative import was 1.4219 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 28.51%.

3. Market outlook forecast

In the fourth quarter, oils and fats are in the peak demand season, and the US soybean futures prices continue to rise, boosting the spot price of oils and fats. SunSirs rapeseed oil analysts predict that rapeseed oil may be the main trend.

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