According to data from SunSirs’ bulk list, since November, domestic adipic acid has continued its upward trend in October, and the increase has become more intense. The data monitored by SunSirs shows that from November 2-4, the increase of adipic acid in East China has reached 5.75 %, the main reason is the shortage of supply in the market, coupled with the surge in upstream costs, the continuous increase in the price of pure benzene, and the improvement of the downstream PA66 market. In addition, market dealers' speculation also contributed to the rise. According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the current general quotation of adipic acid market is in the range of 7,200-7,700 RMB/ton, and the price has risen by 500 RMB/ton compared with the end of October.
From the perspective of market supply, the operating rate of adipic acid manufacturers has been declining since October, and there is no shortage of large-scale plant overhauls. The current operating rate is about 70%. In November, the supply shortage has been exacerbated.
In terms of cost, although the upstream crude oil price is mainly adjusted in the range, and is currently below the 40 US dollar range, pure benzene has risen sharply since October, and the increase in the second half of October exceeded 10%.Although pure benzene has declined slightly in recent days, due to the hysteresis of cost transmission, the current round of adipic acid rise is also the effect of the previous price increase of upstream raw materials.
In terms of downstream demand, the terminal performance is remarkable. Although the chemical industry has steadily recovered in the later period of the epidemic, the operating rate of downstream factories has also increased. In addition, the rigid consumption of downstream polyurethane has stabilized, and the PA66 market has also continued to rise, with an increase of 7.99% in October. Entering November, it did not change the rising trend. As of the 3rd, according to the monitoring of SunSirs, PA66 increased by 2.65% in two trading days.
From a later point of view, SunSirs believes that even though the rise in the adipic acid market is due to the underlying reasons for the shortage of supply and demand, there is no lack of business speculation, dealers’ quotations are also chaotic, and the price difference between high and low exceeds 1,000 RMB/ton. According to the response of market participants, there are basically no transactions at high prices. At present, the increase in adipic acid has a certain amount of water. The price maintenance in the later period depends on whether the demand can keep up. But at present, as the winter approaches, the downstream operating rate may decline. Environmental protection and other factors have limited room for adipic acid to continue to increase.
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