According to data from SunSirs, on November 30, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market was 16,786.67 yuan/ton, which was an increase of 13.09% from the average market price of 14,696.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (November 1); 1st) 14553.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.35%; compared with the average market price during the year (March 24) 11230 yuan/ton, an increase of 49.39%.
In November, the price of aluminum ingots hit a new high for the year, the main reason for the bullishness: macro-driven factors & good supply and demand orientation;
In November, the 'Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement' (RCEP) was signed to superimpose the domestic economy to maintain higher-than-expected growth or will become the only positive growth country in the major economies. The news of the success of vaccines overseas will offset the impact of the current deterioration of the overseas epidemic. In the medium term The expectation is strengthened to boost the expectation of foreign industrial demand. The policy aspect and the expectation of large-scale international stimulus policies are still in place, igniting the enthusiasm of capital to do more non-ferrous sectors.
China's November official manufacturing PMI announced on the morning of the 30th rose to 52.1 (previous value 51.4), a new high since October 2017, and remained in the expansion range for 9 consecutive months. In terms of enterprise scale, the PMI of large, medium and small enterprises was 53, 52, and 50.1, which were 0.4, 1.4, and 0.7 percentage points higher than the previous month, and the PMI of small enterprises returned to above the dry line. In terms of sub-indices, the production index rose to 54.7 (previous value 53.9), new orders index recorded 53.9, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, and new export orders index recorded 51.5 (previous value 51), a recovery for seven consecutive months. A new high since 2018.
In November, the SunSirs Commodity Supply and Demand Index (BCI) was 0.63, with an average increase of 6.67%, reflecting that the manufacturing economy in the month was expanding compared with the previous month, and the economic upward trend was obvious. It is reported that this is the 7 consecutive months of expansion since BCI turned from negative to positive in May.
The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum continues to decline. At present, the social inventory of aluminum ingots has fallen below 600,000 tons. Domestic downstream demand is strong, and the supply and demand is good. On the other hand, domestic manufacturing investment is rising steadily. With the impact of vaccine progress, overseas Relatively lagging market bullish expectations are temporarily formed.
The risk appetite for market funds rose in November, and other domestic markets such as the stock market and futures market showed a significant upward trend as a whole. The linkage between the futures and the current market has boosted aluminum prices. It is expected that the aluminum price will improve in the near future. In the later stage, attention should be paid to prevent the impact of long profits and the sudden increase in imports on domestic aluminum prices.
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