SunSirs: Oct 18

On Oct 17, the Rare Earth Commodity Index was 362, 2 points less than that of yesterday, 63.80% lower than the peak of 1,000 in the cycle (Dec 6, 2011), and 33.58% higher than the lowest point of 271 (Sep 13, 2015). (Cycle: Dec 1, 2011 to date)

Rare-Earth Metal: the average price of Neodymium Metal decreases 5,000RMB/t to 387,500RMB/t, the average price of Dysprosium Metal decreases 50,000RMB/t to 2,175,000RMB/t, the average price of Praseodymium Metal is 685,000RMB/t. Rare-Earth Oxide: the average price of Praseodymium-Neodymium Oxide decreases 6,000RMB/t to 306,500RMB/t, the average price of Dysprosium Oxide decreases 10,000RMB/t to 1,705,000RMB/t, the average price of Praseodymium Oxide is 372,500MB/t, the average price of Neodymium Oxide decreases 5,000RMB/t to 307,500RMB/t. Rare-Earth Alloy: the average price of Praseodymium-Neodymium Alloy decreases 5,000RMB/t to 387,500RMB/t, the average price of Dysprosium Ferroalloy Alloy decreases 10,000RMB/t to 1,705,000RMB/t.

Recently, the prices of rare earth market have been declining continuously, the transactions have been general. The supply from Myanmar has increased, the prices of Dysprosium terbium metals and oxides, and heavy rare earth have been falling continuously. The inquiry of praseodymium neodymium oxide and neodymium oxide has declined, and the price of light rare earth oxide has declined slightly, the selling of light rare earth has not been in good condition, and the recent trading situation has been general. The supply of rare earth in China is normal. The price fluctuation is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth’s production has particularity, especially the radiation hazard of some products, which makes environmental protection supervision more stringent. Metal enterprises and downstream magnetic material enterprises are less interested in purchasing due to the surplus of purchasing before the festival, and the prices of rare earth have been lower than that in the earlier stage, so the wait-and-see mood is strong. Under the strict environmental protection inspection, the production of rare earth separation enterprises in many provinces has been stopped, resulting in the general market supply of rare earth oxides, especially some mainstream rare earth oxides, the supply is normal, and the market price trend is declining. In the near future, there is a strong wait-and-see mood among large-scale enterprise groups in the market. The rare earth market is generally traded, and the volume is at a low level.

The National Environmental Protection Department has not reduced its stringent efforts, which has a great impact on the Rare Earth industry, the operating rate has been low, the market has been cold, and there has been regulations of Rare-Earth industry in Jiangxi, a large province of Rare-Earth producing, all of which are good news to the Market. Recently, the Supervisory Group of the State Council has gone to Jiangxi Rare Earth enterprises. This inspection closely centered on the major deployment of the Central Committee of the Communist of China and the State Council, highlighted the key and difficult issues in the field of economic operation and reform and development, and focused on the strong blockades and pain points reflected by the people and the market subjects, so as to promote the implementation of various tasks from point to area. Besides, the NDRC and departments concerned have promoted effective measures urgently，strengthen the consolidation and made the related management mechanisms innovate and improved, in order to accelerate the construction of a development pattern which consists of a rational industrial structure, an advanced scientific and technological level, the effective resources protection and the orderly production and operation and to add the special value of Rare Earth as a strategic resource. The supply of raw ore resources in the upstream of the Rare Earth industry has shrunk, and people in the domestic market are waiting for the good news on policies and State Reserve.

Rare Earth analyst from SunSirs expects that some prices of Rare Earth may remain at low. Although the supply may stay at low as well, caused by the strict environmental protection inspection and the regulation of the industry, the downstream demand is still not good and the import of heavy rare earth has increased.

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