Recently, China domestic methanol market continued to rise, some manufacturers increased the ex-factory quotation; the price adjustment range was about 50-80 RMB/ ton. According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, as of December 21, the average price of methanol producers in Shandong was 2,290 RMB/ ton, with a month on month increase of 8.15% and a year-on-year increase of 9.57%.
At present, the market price of methanol in Northwest China continues to rise, some enterprises ship temporarily, and the freight is still firm. The price of receiving goods in the lower reaches of Shandong province keeps up with the increase, and the profits of traders are still remaining. The downstream market of formaldehyde and DME rose. The decline of acetic acid and MTBE slowed down, and the persistence was excessive, which had little impact on the methanol market in the short term.
In the external market, as of December 18, the closing price of methanol in the US Gulf was 117.75-118.25 Cents/ gallon, while that in Rotterdam on FOB was 340.00-341.00 Euros/ ton, up 0.5 Euro/ ton. CFR China's methanol closed at $300.50-301.50/ ton, up $10 / ton; CFR Southeast Asia's methanol closed at $350.50-351.50/ ton, up $21 / ton.
From the perspective of the future market, on the positive side, some enterprises in Southwest China have shut down or reduced production load; some enterprises have stopped selling or restricted sales, and the supply side has been tightened; the trend of coal and natural gas is stronger, and the methanol cost side is better supported. On the negative side, under the influence of low temperature, some formaldehyde enterprises started to reduce production, and the overall demand was general; Ningbo Fude 600,000 ton/ year DMTO device had a maintenance plan in January, and the olefin demand declined in the later stage; the downstream still had a mentality of resistance to high prices, and the mentality of the middle and lower reaches was weak. SunSirs analysts predict the short-term methanol market is dominated by an upward tend.
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