Futures: This Wednesday (December 23) coke 2105 down sharply after the rebound, reducing more than 3000 hands. At present, the worry about the epidemic situation of mutated virus is aggravating, the coke price has dropped sharply since the high price and overestimated area of the year, and the panic mood has increased; the recent de production capacity policy and macro positive expectation are still strong, which have the effect of slowing down the decline and strengthening the support, and the capital position has increased. In short-term high price areas, we need to guard against the risk of centralized increase or decrease of funds and large-scale washout, and pay attention to the influence of capital flow and market sentiment changes in high price areas.
Spot: at present, Henan, Hebei and Shandong have strong de capacity policy support, and coke continues to rise. Rizhao, Qingdao port coke prices, transaction stability: quasi grade 1 coke 2,450 RMB/ ton, grade 1 coke 2,550 RMB/ ton, including tax price. Affected by the weather, the Fenwei plain is subject to environmental protection and production restriction, the operating rate of coke enterprises is adjusted slightly, the inventory is low and the price is increased strongly; the price of coking coal for coal mine renovation and customs clearance in Mongolia is increased; the demand of steel plant is high, and the inventory of steel plant and port changes little.
Strategy analysis: at present, the countries' monetary and fiscal easing strongly support the economy, the vaccine is good, the macro demand expectation is still strong, but the worry about the risk of mutated virus epidemic is increasing. Domesticly, we should strengthen macro-control and relax policies to stabilize economic growth. Since the annual high price and overvalued area of coke, the recent de capacity policy and macro favorable expectation are still strong, which will slow down the decline and support; the risk of centralized increase and decrease of funds in high price areas and large-scale dish washing increases.
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