According to data monitoring by SunSirs: In 2020, domestic soybeans will end the three-year downturn, and prices will skyrocket and hit historical highs. Supply is tight and terminal demand is increasing. In 2020, the domestic soybean market will continue to boom. The highest price has exceeded 5200 yuan/ton, and the highest annual increase is close to 49%. The average market price of domestic soybeans at the beginning of the year was 3576 yuan/ton, and the average price of domestic soybeans at the end of the year has reached 5100 yuan/ton, an increase of 42.59%.
According to the annual comparison of 2018-2020, it can be seen that the price of domestic soybeans has not changed much in 2018 and 2019. The mainstream quotation fluctuates at around 3,600/ton, and the increase or decrease is around 2%-4%. In 2020, the domestic soybeans have risen staggeringly, with the highest increase being close to 50%, which has repeatedly hit historical highs
On July 7, 2020, the domestic soybean price has reached 5340 yuan/ton, while the domestic soybean price on July 7, 2018 and 2019 was only 3,600 yuan/ton, and the price difference was as high as 1,700 yuan/ton. 2020 is the most prosperous year for domestic soybean market.
According to the monthly rise and fall of domestic soybeans from January to November 2020, it can be seen that domestic soybeans have risen for a total of 8 months and 7 consecutive months in 2020. The highest increase in March was as high as 20%, and the decline in October was close to 10%. Because October is the replacement of old and new soybeans, new soybeans are on the market, domestic soybean prices are lower on the scale, and later prices continue to rise sharply. As of the end of December, domestic soybeans have returned to a high of 5,100 yuan/ton.
The specific analysis of domestic soybean market from January to December 2020 is as follows:
In January, after New Year's Day, the price of domestic soybeans in the main producing areas ushered in a small increase. After the increase, domestic soybean prices continued to stabilize, and the mainstream price was still around 1.8-1.85 yuan/500g. As the Spring Festival approaches, market purchases and sales have basically stopped, and domestic soybean prices in Heilongjiang, the main producing area, have not fluctuated. Domestic soybeans rose 1.12% overall in January.
In February, the purchase and sales of domestic soybeans in Heilongjiang's main production area had not fully recovered. A few traders had quotes. The purchase price of soybean products rose slightly. The market purchases and sales were deserted. The overall situation remained weak and stable. The mainstream quotation is 1.8-1.9 yuan/500g, and the price for traders from other places is about 2 yuan/500g. Domestic soybeans rose by 1.38% overall in February.
In March, the source of high-quality beans in Heilongjiang, the main producing area, was scarce, and terminal soy products resumed construction one after another, supported by rigid demand. In most areas of Heilongjiang, the loading price of commercial beans went up to 4200 yuan/ton. On the 25th, China Grain Stores Dayangshu directly raised the price of domestic soybeans to 4,400 yuan/ton. Domestic soybeans rose 20% overall in March.
In April, Heilongjiang, the main producing area, had fewer sources of circulating soybeans. The State Treasury's listing of purchases stimulated the increase in soybean prices. Traders were mainly reluctant to sell. The price of soybeans continued to rise sharply. The price of gross grain was 4400-4600 yuan/kg. Beans are 5000-5200 yuan/kg, and some soybeans are charged at 5300-5400 yuan/kg. Domestic soybeans rose 6.82% overall in April. In May, the price of domestic soybeans in the main producing areas was basically at the highest point, the surplus grains in the market bottomed out, and most of them were in a priceless state. Traders mainly offered prices. The mainstream quotations were still 4800-5000 yuan/ton, and the market continued to trend. Stable, soybeans that have risen for three consecutive months have limited upside. Domestic soybeans rose 2.55% overall in May.
In June, the new season soybean surplus stocks in Heilongjiang’s main production area bottomed out, and the rigid demand for soybeans from protein plants increased, and traders were reluctant to sell them. In addition, the transaction price of temporarily stored soybeans had exceeded 5390 yuan/ton, and domestic soybean prices rose again. The mainstream price is 5200-5300 yuan/ton. Domestic soybeans rose 3.73% overall in June.
In July, temporary storage soybeans were listed successively. China Grain Oils & Oils Company continued to auction soybeans. All the soybeans were sold at a premium. The highest transaction price exceeded 5500 yuan/ton, which stimulated domestic soybean prices to rise. Although the transaction was hot, the transaction price continued to decline, from 5500 yuan/ton. To 5270 yuan/ton, the market's acceptance of high-priced soybeans declined. The 5th and 6th temporary storage soybean auctions continued to pass, and the prices of domestic soybeans continued to fall. Domestic soybeans rose 3.01% overall in July.
In August, the State Reserve Soybean Auction conducted a total of 5 auctions. On the 13th, all the first auctions failed. The transaction rate of the next four auctions was only about 50%. The highest transaction price was also 4600-4800 yuan/ton. Compared with the transaction rate of soybean storage, the volume and price dropped sharply. In August, domestic soybeans fell 2.35% overall.
In September, domestic soybean surplus grains were scarce, and new soybeans were successively listed at the end of the month. The market players were in a wait-and-see state, and the market for domestic soybeans was stable. Agriculture in Heilongjiang, the main producing area, has been hit harder. Farmers have hoped that the new season soybeans will be weighed in price. In September, domestic soybeans fell 0.45% overall.
In October, domestic soybeans entered the harvesting season, and new beans were launched one after another. The price of new beans was 2.1 yuan per catty, and the mainstream gross grain was 2 to 2.15 yuan per catty. Since the price of domestic soybeans in the early stage has risen to 2.6 yuan/kg, the market price of new beans has a large gap with it, so the price of soybeans has fallen steeply. Domestic soybeans fell 9.92% overall in October.
In November, the domestic soybeans of the new season went on the market one after another, and the price continued to rise after the full listing. Terminal soy product factories have been purchased on the market one after another. Farmers are mainly reluctant to sell, and the market is in short supply, showing that the soy products factory cannot purchase new grains and is suspending production. Soybean market showed a lacklustre transaction, and prices continued to soar. Domestic soybeans rose 4.35% overall in November.
In December, Heilongjiang, the main producing area, had relatively little domestic soybean surplus. Soybeans in the new season have risen to 2.6 yuan/kg. The market's rising trend has gradually stabilized. The terminal soybean product factories have insufficient confidence in entering the market. Farmers are still reluctant to sell. The market transactions are relatively limited. Soybean prices continue to run at a high level. Domestic soybeans rose 6.25% overall in December.
Outlook
SunSirs agricultural product analysts believe that domestic soybeans will remain high in 2020, mainly due to tight supply and increased logistics costs. Domestic soybeans will still face this problem in 2021. The price of domestic soybeans will continue to run at a high level in the future. In 2021, domestic soybeans will continue to be 5200 yuan/ton.
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