1. Trend analysis
According to SunSirs data monitoring, the cobalt market in 2020 failed to continue the upward trend at the end of 2019. Affected by the epidemic, the overall cobalt market in 2020 will be relatively cold, far below market expectations. As of December 30, the cobalt price was 272,666.66 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 2.31% from the beginning of the year (January 1) of 266500.00 yuan/ton. Although the cobalt price will rise slightly in 2020, the cobalt market will rise sharply relative to the expected market. The cobalt market in 2020 will be quite cold. In the overall cold cobalt market, several different voices will become the trend of cobalt prices in 2020.
2. New energy vehicle market
According to statistics from the China Automobile Association, from January to November 2020, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.119 million, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%, and the sales of 1.109 million vehicles were completed, an increase of 3.9%. In the post-subsidy era, the production of new energy vehicles will decline slightly in 2020, and sales will increase year-on-year, providing sufficient support for the demand in the cobalt market. The production and sales of new energy vehicles have risen sharply, and the demand for the cobalt market has risen significantly. The positive market for the cobalt market has greatly increased.
According to media reports, cumulative sales in Europe from January to November are expected to be 1.1 million, and this year is expected to reach 1.25 million, a year-on-year increase of over 120%. The European Union's "European 2030 Climate Goal Plan" raises the 2030 greenhouse gas emission reduction target from 40% to 60%. Various countries have introduced various subsidy policies and the target time for the ban on fuel vehicles has been advanced. Coupled with the increase and promotion of new European models, a series of measures have caused the sales of electric vehicles in Europe to soar. The epidemic has limited impact on the European new energy vehicle market. The sales of new energy vehicles in Europe have soared, and the demand for the cobalt market has soared. The cobalt market is positive.
3. Domestic mobile phone production and sales data
According to statistics from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, the total domestic mobile phone market shipments in November were 29.584 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 15.1%. In November, domestic mobile phone sales fell year-on-year but the decline contracted and rose sharply from the previous month. The demand in the cobalt market slowly recovered, which is positive for the cobalt market. However, due to the overall decline in mobile phone sales, the demand for cobalt in the mobile phone market has generally declined, and the cobalt market has limited upward momentum.
According to IDC's global smartphone market shipment data for 2020, global smartphone shipments in the first quarter of 2020 decreased by 11.7% year-on-year, the second quarter fell by 16.0% year-on-year, and the third quarter was still in decline, down 1.3% year-on-year , The overall sales of the global smartphone market for the whole year is expected to decline by 2.3%. The total global smartphone shipments in the third quarter were 353.6 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%, but the result was stronger than IDC's previous -9% expectation. The epidemic has begun to improve, and some mobile phone markets around the world are showing a trend of recovery. The recovery of the mobile phone market is obviously positive for the demand for the cobalt market in the future, and the cobalt market has a greater momentum of rising.
According to data released by IDC, global tablet PC shipments in the third quarter of 2020 increased by 24.9% year-on-year to 47.6 million units; in the third quarter of 2020, global wearable device shipments reached 125 million units, a year-on-year increase of 35 %. Global smartphone shipments will decline in 2020, but relative shipments of tablets and wearable devices will increase significantly. Overall, in terms of 3C products and smart devices, there is a large room for global demand to rise in the future, and the demand for the cobalt market is expected to rise.
According to Reuters' Chinese website, hardware industry executives and analysts said that the global sales of laptops and desktop computers in 2020 are at the highest level since the iPhone was launched in 2007, and it is expected that the shipment of personal computers in 2020 will reach approximately 300 million units. This is an increase of about 15% over the previous year. The increase in computer sales has brought benefits to the demand in the cobalt market. Although the support time for this benefit remains to be examined, the overall demand in the cobalt market has certain support.
4. Import of cobalt raw materials
According to statistics from China Customs, from January to November 2020, China's total imports of cobalt raw materials totaled 80,900 tons of metal, a year-on-year increase of 1%. Although affected by the epidemic, African ports were closed in April and China's cobalt raw material imports fell sharply. However, the overall impact of China's cobalt raw material imports was relatively small and the annual import volume increased slightly. The increase in the import of cobalt raw materials is negative for the domestic cobalt market, and the cobalt market has certain downward pressure.
According to South African media reports, South African President Ramaphosa announced in a televised speech last night that South Africa will re-enter the Level 3 lockdown from 0:00 on December 29 and will not decide whether to update the epidemic prevention measures until January 15. The port of Mozambique-Beira was temporarily closed due to typhoon weather. South Africa's re-blockade and port shutdown will have a certain impact on the import of cobalt raw materials. The domestic import of cobalt raw materials may decrease in the short term, and the cobalt market will have a greater upward momentum.
5. Market summary
Aata analysts at SunSirs believe that the global cobalt market will be mainly cold in 2020 due to the impact of the first epidemic. Although there are various policy support, the overall cobalt market demand is still slightly insufficient. But after a bleak, we found that the cobalt market is still "rising." It is these "increasing sounds" that will support the rebound of cobalt prices in 2020 and also bring hope to the rise of the cobalt market in the future. The sharp decline in mobile phone sales in 2020 has led to a decline in demand in the cobalt market, and sales of new energy vehicles have risen but did not meet expectations. These are the main reasons for the difficulty in rising cobalt prices in 2020. The increase in sales of 3C products such as computers and wearable products has brought new growth points to the demand for the cobalt market. The outbreak of the European new energy vehicle market has also supported the cobalt market from falling sharply. Finally, the impact of the epidemic and the increase in international freight costs will have a greater impact on China's cobalt market, which is heavily dependent on imports. The increase in cobalt costs will support the rise of cobalt prices. Looking at the market outlook, the impact of the epidemic is gradually weakening, and the global market is slowly picking up. Spurred by 5G mobile phones, mobile phone sales may usher in new growth in 2021, and the growth of new energy vehicles is unstoppable. In 2021, the demand for cobalt market Sino-New Energy Vehicles will be the main force driving the increase in cobalt prices. The overall expectation is that there will still be a big flashpoint in cobalt market demand in the future. There will be huge room for cobalt prices to rise in 2021.
Related listed companies: Huayou Cobalt (603799), Hanrui Cobalt (300618), Luoyang Molybdenum (603993).
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