SunSirs monitoring

The average price of eggs at the beginning of 2020 is 3.79 yuan/500g, and the average price of eggs at the end of the year is 4.25 yuan/500g, an increase of about 3.13%. From the current market situation, although the price of eggs has been rising intermittently recently, there is no phenomenon that an egg is hard to find, indicating that the supply is still sufficient, at least there is no pressure on the current demand, and the supply-side capacity reduction is still ongoing. 

Product

In the first quarter, egg prices showed a downward trend, mainly due to the decline in the substitution effect of eggs in pork demand. Under the pressure of gradual increase in pork supply, the replacement demand for eggs will continue to weaken, and its own demand will also be seasonally declining, which is double negative. The market's concern about oversupply of eggs will continue to increase.

In the second quarter, the price of eggs was mainly fluctuated, and the downstream eggs were mostly consumed by inventory. The overall demand was slightly flat and the temperature was gradually rising. The quality of eggs was prone to problems, and dealers were less motivated to purchase. In April, there were not many remaining products in the production and circulation of eggs. During the month, the production link had an average of 1.96 days of inventory, a decrease of 27.14% from the previous month; the circulation link had an average of 1.04 days of inventory, a decrease of 1.89% from the previous month.

In the third quarter, egg prices showed an overall upward trend. In summer, laying hens will enter a 'rest period' and egg production rate will decrease. The climate in the north and south will gradually enter the hot summer because chickens are poultry without sweat glands, causing the laying hens to be hot. The production rate in summer will drop significantly, and the weight of eggs laid will also be reduced, and the total amount of eggs produced will gradually decline. Under the influence of high temperature, egg production is expected to decrease by about 15%. In August, the stock of layer hens increased month-on-month, and the rebound in replacements from March to April led to an increase in the newly opened production of layer hens from August to September. Before the Mid-Autumn Festival, it was the peak period for the elimination of laying hens. From the end of August, the market was gradually eliminated and the number of laying hens eliminated began to advance, but there was no sign of overstocking. After October, the newly opened output is less, but the increase is obviously not as good as that of April 2020.

In the fourth quarter, egg prices fluctuated. The number of newly opened laying hens on the supply side was not large. As old chickens were gradually eliminated, the stock of laying hens continued to decrease, and the pressure on egg supply declined in the later period. However, most of the production areas have low prices Regrettably, the number of eliminated chickens for slaughter fell short of expectations, and the overall supply decline was limited. The current peak period is about 70% of laying hens, and the supply of large-size eggs is sufficient.

In terms of inventory, the number of laying hens in the country in November has fallen to 1,247.6 million, a decrease of 1.41% from the previous month and 1.08% from the same period last year. According to the calculation of the layer cycle of 17 months, based on the current inventory and previous chicken sales data, the data on the number of laying hens in December this year, January, February and March next year are 1.244 billion, respectively. 1.234 billion, 1.213 billion and 1.199 billion. By March next year, the stock of laying hens can basically drop to near normal levels, and the pressure on the supply side will be greatly eased.

Prediction

The number of newly opened laying hens is lower than the normal level, and there is a possibility of intensively eliminating old chickens before New Year's Day and the Spring Festival. The stock volume is still on a downward trend, and the supply is gradually shrinking. From the demand side, under the boost of festive effects such as the Winter Solstice, New Year's Day, and Spring Festival, downstream food factories and wholesalers at all levels will gradually open the stocking mode and accelerate circulation. Supply and demand are both favorable, the turning point of eggs has come, and egg prices fluctuated up at the end of the year, and some production areas are expected to break the '4 yuan mark'. However, we still need to pay attention to the centralized procurement and holiday time in sales areas. Some sales areas may have early holidays. Major colleges and universities will have holidays in early January. Therefore, it is necessary to pay attention to seasonal consumption off-season around the Spring Festival. Overall, 2021 The layer industry is gradually improving and the future can be expected.

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