External disk trend: the market is closed for the New Year.

Disk trend: ①A2105 closed at 5,741, -0.54% from the previous trading day, trading volume was 119,935 hands, open interest was 88,478 hands, -3,262 hands; A5-September spread was 149; ②B2102 closed at 4,192, 1.75% from the previous trading day , The trading volume was 43,386 hands, the open interest was 27,654 hands, -1,046; ③M2105 closed at 3,483, 1.75% from the previous trading day, the trading volume was 1,236,212 hands, the open interest was 1,669,465 hands, 13,313 hands, the basis difference between Jiangsu spot and M2105 was -83, and M2109 basis is -123, M5-September spread is -40; ④Y2105 contract closed at 7,984, 1.24% from the previous trading day, the trading volume is 540,823 hands, the open interest is 490,290, -327, Y5-September spread is 500.

News: 1. The weekly report issued by the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange stated that in the week ending December 29, the soybean planting progress in Argentina for 2020/21 reached 87.5%, 10.3 percentage points higher than a week ago, but compared with last year It was 2.1% lower over the same period. 2. On January 4, data released by the Argentine government showed that from January to November 2020, Argentina's soybean exports were 6.75 million tons, with an export value of 2.31 billion US dollars, which is equivalent to an average FOB price of 342.4 US dollars/ton.

Market price: 5520 domestic soybean prices. The price of soybean meal from oil plants in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu: 3400,70. Dealers in Tianjin area quoted 8800 first-class soybean oil. Zhangjiagang dealer quoted 8940. Guangzhou traders quoted 9050. (Unit: Yuan/Ton)

Inventory of warehouse receipts: 4315 lots and 0 lots for the first warehouse receipt; 0 lots and 0 lots for the second warehouse receipt. Soybean meal warehouse receipt 16227 lots, 0. Soy oil warehouse receipt 2821, -100 lots. As of the week of December 25, the total soybean meal inventory of oil plants in major coastal areas in China was 84.52 tons, a decrease of 10,700 tons from 855,900 tons last week, a decrease of 1.25%, and an increase of 62.44% from 520,300 tons in the same period last year. As of the week of December 25, the total domestic soybean oil commercial inventory was 1.0285 million tons, a decrease of 17,85 million tons from last week's 1.0207 million tons, a decrease of 1.75%.

Main positions: Bean 1 2105 contract top 20 long positions 50794, -768, short position 52886,366, net position -2092; beans 2102 contract top 20 long position 18032, -306, short position 19998,776, net position -1966. Soybean meal 2105 top 20 long positions 1069110, 4051, short positions 1299506, 11158, net positions -230396. The top 20 soybean oil 2105 contracts are long 297414, -7362, short 405422, 1316, and net position -108008. (Unit: hand)

Opinion summary: Bean 1: The loading price of net grain in Heilongjiang production areas reached 2.75-2.80 yuan/jin, and the domestic soybean price in the customs rebounded slightly. After Russia will impose a 30% export tariff on soybeans to promote the domestic soybean market to stop falling and rebound, a strong breakthrough in the CBOT soybean market continues to strengthen the domestic soybean market's bullish expectations. China is the main importer of Russian soybeans, and under normal circumstances it imports 600-800,000 tons per year. The substantial increase in the cost of imported Russian soybeans is expected to increase the consumption of domestic soybeans, which will boost demand for domestic soybeans. All parties have strong expectations for domestic soybeans to maintain a high level of operation. After the current round of turbulence in the soybean market, traders and farmers have increased their price incentives. The demand for soybeans before the holiday has increased, and the stocks of downstream protein factories and food companies have increased. The bottom of soybean prices has become more supportive. It is expected that the Douyi futures will maintain a strong volatility trend. You can continue to hold multiple Douyi 2105 futures orders or buy on low prices.

Bean 2: The weekly report issued by the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange stated that in the week ending December 29, the soybean planting progress in Argentina for 2020/21 reached 87.5%, 10.3 percentage points higher than a week ago, but compared with the same period last year. That's 2.1% lower. As of December 18, Brazil's soybean planting progress for 2020/21 was 96%, which was higher than 93.5% a week ago, lower than 96.2% in the same period last year, and lower than the historical average of 96.7%. The planting progress in Brazil and Argentina is slower than the same period last year, showing the impact of weather factors on planting. From the perspective of imported cargo, as of December 11, there were 2.037 million tons of domestic ports arriving at 31 ships, and the number of arrivals increased from last week, which increased the pressure on some ports. From a disk perspective, Bean 2 showed a wide range of shocks, with intraday homeopathic operations dominated.

Soybean meal: Due to the continued destocking of U.S. soybeans and the market's concerns about the South American weather, the planting in South America has been affected. In addition, import costs are high. At present, the gross profit of US Gulf soybeans for December-February shipments is 14-117 yuan/ton. After deducting 150-180 yuan/ton processing fee, the net crushing profit is still at a loss, and oil plants raise prices. Strong willingness to boost meal prices. Domestically, aquaculture has basically stagnated, and poultry farming has continued to lose money. The demand for poultry feed has dropped significantly, and transaction volume may be affected to a certain extent. In addition, the concentrated production of live pigs at the end of the year led to a slowdown in the demand for pig feed. Drag down soybean meal prices. In addition, after the price rose to a high level, downstream consumption slowed down. After the price of soybean meal was raised, consumption was weak. Some oil plants have been shut down due to the expansion of the warehouse. Among them, the Southwest Oil Plant has been shut down due to the expansion of the warehouse, limiting the price of soybean meal. On the disk, the short-term soybean meal fluctuates with the market, but the correction is expected to be limited. The remaining long orders near 3100 yuan/ton in the previous period will continue to be held.

Soybean oil: As for US soybeans, due to the good export performance and the greater uncertainty of the weather in South America, US soybeans continued to rise, driving the rise of domestic beans. In addition to the expansion of soybean meal, the operating rate of oil plants has declined. Last week, the oil mill's crushing volume fell to 1.71 million tons, a decrease of 9.2%. Soybean oil stocks further fell to 958,000 tons, down 4.44% on a weekly basis. Soybean oil inventories continued to decline. The inventory level of oil and rape oil is still not high overall, which has brought strong support to the oil. It is expected that the oil market will remain high and strong before the Spring Festival. However, after the recent oil and fat rise to a high level, the transaction has continued to be light, and the high level volatility is relatively severe, so it is necessary to grasp the rhythm of entering and exiting the market. On the disk, soybean oil 2105 is concerned about the pressure in the area around 8000, and below it is concerned about the support of the 40-day moving average.

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