1. Prices Trend
This week (Oct.14-Oct.18), the domestic market of 1# tin ingot swung high. The average price was 138,175RMB/t at the beginning of the week and 139,887.50RMB/t at the end of the week (rising 1.24%).
On Oct 20, the Tin Commodity Index was 71.26, 28.92% lower than the peak of 100.25 in the cycle (Sep 5, 2011), and 66.26% higher than the lowest point of 42.86 (Dec 9, 2015). (Cycle: Sep 1, 2011 to date)
2. Analysis of quotations tendency
Domestic market: This week, the spot tin market bottomed out. The U.S. released retail data which is a new seven-month low. Under this influence, the U.S. dollar index showed a continuous correction. Under the double positive stimulus of the U.S. dollar correction and industry production reduction, the spot market was driven by the positive effect of SN, the price of spot rose by 2,000RMB/t. On Friday, the domestic mainstream price was 138,000-141,000RMB/t.
Nonferrous Industry: Market sentiment was mixed this week. At the beginning of this week, China and the United States reached an agreement on the framework of trade negotiations. The process of brexit was accelerated, the market performance was good, and basic metals generally stabilized in a high range of shocks. However, with the release of global economic data in succession, the trend of global economic downturn made the basic metals one after another spit out the weekly gains, showing a high pressure situation.
Major events in the industry: Indonesia's refined tin exports fell 41% year-on-year in September: Jakarta, Oct 11, Indonesia's refined tin exports fell 41% year-on-year in September, according to data released by the Ministry of trade on Friday. According to data, Indonesia's refined tin exports last month were 5,225.26 tons, lower than 8,854.30 tons in the same period last year. On a monthly basis, refined tin exports in September fell 5% from the previous month.
3. Prospect for the future
Next week, European and American economic data are still relatively concentrated, and are expected to remain weak. The US dollar is in low-level consolidation, which may support the basic metals. There are long orders delivered in the domestic trade market. Due to the upgrade of value-added tax tickets, the spot performance may be strong. Most of the basic metals will maintain the swinging pattern in certain range, and it is temporarily difficult to have the ability and space for a major breakthrough.
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