Price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the ex-factory price of urea in Shandong increased this week, with the quotation rising from 1,833.33 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week to 1,836.67 RMB/ton on the weekend, an increase of 0.18%, a year-on-year increase of 9.98%. Overall, the urea market rose this week, and the urea commodity index on January 8 was 85.43.

Analysis review

Judging from the manufacturers' quotations, the mainstream ex-factory prices of urea in Shandong this week rose. Yangmei Pingyuang’s urea was quoted at 1,850 RMB/ton this weekend, compared with the beginning of the week, the price was temporarily stable; Shandong Ruixing’s urea quoted at 1,820 RMB/ton this weekend, compared with the beginning of the week, the price was temporarily stable; Mingshui Dahua’s urea quoted 1,840 RMB/ton this weekend, which was an increase of 10 RMB/ton compared with the beginning of the week.

Downstream demand has risen overall. In agriculture, due to the impact of the epidemic, fertilizer preparation in some areas has been advanced appropriately. In the industrial sector, the demand of sheet metal and compound fertilizer plants followed up appropriately, and the purchasing enthusiasm of merchants improved. On the supply side, some devices have recently been shut down for maintenance, and the overall start of construction has declined, and the market supply has remained low.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain: the overall urea upstream products have declined slightly this week: the price of liquefied natural gas has temporarily stabilized at 5,366.67 RMB/ton, an increase of 57.69% year-on-year; the price of liquid ammonia fell this week, with the quotation falling from 3,306.67 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week to 3,273.33 RMB/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 1.01%, a year-on-year increase of 13.26%. The price of melamine downstream of urea was temporarily stable this week, at 7,266.67 RMB/ton. Overall, the cost of urea this week supported it strongly.

Market outlook

In mid-January, the urea market in Shandong may fluctuate mainly. The urea analyst of SunSirs believes that the current agricultural demand is good, the industrial demand has improved, and the urea supply is tight. It is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate slightly mainly.

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