On February 1st, the price of silver skyrocketed, and the white silver consecutively exceeded $30/ounce, breaking through the high price in the early period of 2020; Ag(T+D) opened at a price of 5573 yuan/g, and closed at 5476 yuan/g during the weekend. After the suspension of trading, the Japanese market violently pulled up on February 1st, reaching a maximum of 5896 yuan/gram, and closing price of 5892 yuan/gram, which closed up 10.34%; the main silver futures contract, Silver 2106, jumped at the opening and quoted at 5654 yuan/gram, night trading It closed at 5564 yuan/gram. After the suspension of trading on the weekend, the Japanese market rose violently on February 1st, reaching a maximum of 5949 yuan/gram, and closing price of 5939 yuan/gram, closing up 9.27%.

There is still room for domestic silver spot prices to reach their 2020 highs

According to data from SunSirs, the average silver market price in early trading on February 1, 2021 was 5,176.33 yuan/kg, which was 5,177.67 yuan/kg in early trading compared to the spot market price at the beginning of the month (January 28), an increase of 10.40%; compared with the peak in 2020 ( 8.11) The silver spot price was 6,708.33 yuan/kg, down 14.76%.

The Shanghai Gold Exchange centralizes the pricing of Shanghai silver prices in the morning and afternoon trading as follows:

Silver speculation is stronger

Silver began to rise in the night trading on the 28th, and the price of gold was relatively sluggish. Market rumors had recently begun to turn the subject matter of US retail investors to silver. Although there is no factual basis, the figure below shows that the price of silver fluctuates much higher than its trend twin brother gold. Fortunately, this trend has been shown to the full in mid-March and early August 2020, and silver has skyrocketed and plummeted. The speculative attribute of is stronger.

Data from the Shanghai Gold Exchange also reflects that in 2020, the high amplitude of silver's skyrocketing and plummeting has attracted the attention of investors (speculators).

According to data from the Shanghai Gold Exchange, in 2020, the silver transaction value was 20.75 trillion yuan, an increase of 186.19% year-on-year, and the transaction volume was 4.2147 million tons, an increase of 136.78% year-on-year; the gold transaction value was 22.55 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.91% year-on-year, and the transaction volume was 5.87 10,000 tons, down 14.44% year-on-year.

Outer disk silver breaks through the 2020 peak

White Silver Link (SLNC) broke through US$30 per ounce in a day, reaching a maximum of US$30.35 per ounce, breaking through the high price in early 2020.

It is reported that before the Reddit forum WallStreetBets retail investors called for 'the largest silver short in history'.

The huge benefits and international enthusiasm gained by 'US retail investors' in the stock market has greatly increased speculative funds' attention to silver products. In addition, unlike the precious metal gold, which is at a historical high in the past 10 years, the price of silver in April 2011 was at 49.50 US dollars per ounce. There is huge room for upward imagination, creating a powerful price range bargaining chip for 'US retail investors' to short-squeeze.

If the price of the domestic market rises, there is still room

Not only does the external silver price have room for imagination, the domestic silver price rose even more sharply in the August 2020 market rise. The current price-driven mainly relies on the external market, which is slightly lagging, and the increase is relatively weak. If the internal silver price rises and rises The space is also more impressive. Of course, the current gains are still within the fundamentals. If the stock market operated by retail investors in the United States deviates from actual supply and demand, it completely enters the stage of blogging, and the rapid collapse and gapping are unknown. On the news, the price of silver soared on the 1st. The Thai Futures Exchange (TFEX) announced the suspension of trading of online silver futures, while India reduced the tariffs on gold and silver to 7.5%. SunSirs analysts expect domestic silver prices to follow the external market in the near future, and the range is slightly lower than the external market.

Precious metal data

The price trend of precious metals in January was generally weak. Silver stabilized at the end of the month and the upside was obvious, and the market outlook was uncertain. On the one hand, the Federal Reserve has issued policies within expectations, the US dollar index is relatively high, and precious metals are slightly under pressure; on the other hand, retail investors are enthusiastic about trading expectations, and the market has entered a period of entrapment.

Summary of recent data

The global annual demand for gold in 2020 (excluding over-the-counter transactions) is 3,759.6 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14%, and is less than 4,000 tons for the first time since 2009; the inflow of gold ETFs in 2020 hit a record high, totaling 877.1 tons (approximately 47.9 billion) USD), the global asset management scale reached 3,751.5 tons; the total demand for gold bars and gold coins in 2020 was 896.1 tons, a year-on-year increase of 3%; the total global demand for gold jewellery in 2020 was 1,411.6 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 34%; the total demand for central banks in 2020 was 273 tons, a decrease of 59% year-on-year; the total demand for gold for science and technology in 2020 is 301.9 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7%; the total global gold supply in 2020 is 4,633 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4%; the total amount of gold recovered in 2020 is 1,297.4 tons, A slight increase of 1% year-on-year.

According to the latest statistics from the China Gold Association, in 2020, the domestic raw material gold production was 365.34 tons, a 14.88 tons reduction compared with the same period in 2019, a year-on-year decrease of 3.91%. Among them, 301.69 tons of gold from gold mines and 63.65 tons of non-ferrous by-product gold were completed.

In 2020, the actual consumption of gold nationwide was 820.98 tons, a decrease of 18.13% compared with the same period in 2019. Among them: 490.58 tons of gold jewelry, down 27.45% year-on-year; 246.59 tons of gold bars and gold coins, up 9.21% year-on-year; 83.81 tons of industrial and other gold, down 16.81% year-on-year.

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