Futures: Soybean meal 2105 oscillated on Monday, closing at 3485 (up 1), with a total lightening of more than 26,000 lots, and trading volume increased slightly. The top 20 capital flows: Long positions are mainly dispersed and lighten up, and positions are reduced, and the concentration is slightly reduced; short positions are dispersed and lightened, and the concentration of positions is slightly reduced. The weather speculation is temporarily suspended, and the US soybean market fluctuates at a high level. Follow-up concerns about South American soybean production. Domestic hog repair momentum is good, demand supports the bottom of soybean meal to rise, and the market has increased support near 3400, but high-level capital selling pressure is heavier, short-term fluctuations may continue to stabilize and volatility, pay attention to external market trends, key capital sentiment and market expectations changes.

Strategic analysis: The current weather hype is temporarily suspended, domestic imports of US soybeans are still growing, supply and demand, weather and market sentiment factors alternately affect the market. On the supply side, China continues to actively purchase U.S. soybeans, with high arrivals in Hong Kong; La Niña affects the weather in South America, and there is uncertainty in South American soybean production. In terms of demand, the stock of live pigs has continued to rise, and the slaughter has gradually recovered. The large-scale breeding cycle has been restored, and the demand for soybean meal has been stimulated in the medium and long term. Operational reference: The medium and long-term bullish trend remains unchanged. Pay attention to the risk of short-term decline. If the market is exploring important support areas, you can choose the opportunity to lay out long-term and long-term orders. After a sharp increase, you can reduce your position or short-term hedge.

Market strategy: Soybean meal 2105 may continue to fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to the pressure situation near 3500 and changes in capital initiative. Short-term operation: hold 10% more capital positions, drop below 3470 and close your position. If the market goes down and stabilizes in the 3420-3450 area, you can consider trying more. If the market is under pressure near 3550 and above, you can consider reducing more and closing more. Swing operation: hold 10% more capital positions or fall back to around 3400 and place midline long orders. Short-term key points: 3450, 3500.

Market news: According to the USDA supply and demand report, the U.S. soybean carry-over inventory was lowered to 140 million bushels. The previous market average was expected to be 139 million bushels; the U.S. soybean yield continued to decrease by 0.5 bushels to 50.2 bushels/acre. The previous market average was expected to be 50.5 bushels/acre; The U.S. soybean crush is raised by 5 million bu to 2.2 billion bu, and the US soybean export is raised by 30 million bu to 2.23 billion bu. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, according to the data from fixed-point monitoring, the stock of reproductive sows in the country exceeded 41 million and the stock of live pigs exceeded 400 million at the end of November, and the pig production capacity has recovered to more than 90% of the end of 2017. U.S. soybean exports to China have continued to grow, and their proportion has returned to the level of normal years. The sales progress is nearing completion and the profit of China's imports of U.S. soybeans has slowed down. Development and Reform Commission: The National Development and Reform Commission issued a central budget to invest 4.55 billion yuan to strengthen support for the environmental governance of livestock and poultry farms and other infrastructure construction, support the accelerated recovery of live pig production, and promote sustainable agricultural development.

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