Internal and external trends: LME copper rebounded on Thursday. As of 15:00 Beijing time, the three-month LME copper reported $7846.5/ton, down 0.02% daily. Shanghai Copper’s main 2103 contract opened higher, with a daily maximum of 57950 yuan/ton, a minimum of 57230 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 57,820 yuan/ton, which was 1.44% higher than the closing price of the previous trading day; the trading volume was 118,813 contracts, a daily decrease of 17,681 contracts. ; Holding 105705 hands, a daily decrease of 7,858 hands. Basis -5 yuan/ton; Shanghai copper 2103-2104 month price difference -50 yuan/ton.
Market focus: (1) The number of ADP employment in the United States increased by 174,000 in January, which is expected to increase by 49,000. The previous value was revised to decrease by 78,000. (2) The U.S. non-manufacturing activity index rose to 58.7 in January, which is the highest reading since February 2019. The index above 50 indicates that the service industry is expanding, which accounts for two-thirds of U.S. economic activity the above.
Spot analysis: On February 4, spot 1# electrolytic copper price was 57680-57950 yuan/ton, the average price was 57815 yuan/ton, and the daily increase was 635 yuan/ton. Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals reported that the holders of the goods held high prices, and some bargain-hunting purchases, and weak downstream consumption, inhibited transaction performance.
Warehouse receipts inventory: On Thursday, Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 21,791 tons, an increase of 2,604 tons per day; on February 3, LME copper inventory was 75,000 tons, an increase of 775 tons per day.
Main positions: The top 20 long positions of Shanghai Copper's main 2103 contract are 62,590, a daily decrease of 3,706 hands, a short position of 68,291 hands, a daily decrease of 4,746 hands, a net short position of 5701 hands, a daily decrease of 1040 hands, both long and short positions, and a decrease in headroom.
Market research and judgment: Shanghai Copper 2103 opened higher on February 4th. The number of U.S. ADP employment in January was significantly better than expected, and the non-manufacturing PMI also recorded substantial growth. The strong recovery of employment and the economy pushed up the dollar. The supply of domestic copper ore remains tight. Copper processing fee TC continues to be lowered, and copper smelting costs are high. The current domestic copper inventory continues to decline and is at a historical low level. In addition, Chile's ports encounter wind and waves and the export is blocked. It is expected that the impact on the market outlook will gradually appear. However, the implementation of the new copper scrap policy has resulted in a substantial increase in imports, ample raw materials for smelters, and the end of the year downstream stocking is nearing completion, the demand has declined, and copper prices have limited action. Technically, the daily MACD indicator of the Shanghai Copper 2103 contract is down, focusing on the 10-day moving average pressure, and short-term low adjustments are expected. In terms of operation, it is recommended to operate in the range of 57300-58300 yuan/ton, with a stop loss of 300 yuan/ton each.
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