External disk trend: Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures rose on Friday, while soybean meal rose. CBOT May soybean futures rose 19.5 cents to 1430 cents per bushel, May soybean meal contract rose 1.6 US dollars to 418.2 US dollars per short ton; May soybean oil contract rose 1.1 cents to 51.8 cents per pound.
Disk trend: ①A2105 closed at 6200, 1.35% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 293458 lots, and the open interest was 103356 hands, -27248; the price difference between A5 and September was 185; ②B2104 closed at 4,518, 3.1% from the previous trading day. Volume was 40405 hands, open interest was 11331 hands, -794; ③M2105 closed at 3414, 1.88% from the previous trading day, turnover was 1292146 hands, open interest was 1149004 hands, -52026 hands, Jiangsu spot and M2105 basis difference 176, and M2109 basis The difference is 98, the M5-September spread is -78; ④Y2105 contract closed at 9388, 4.71% from the previous trading day, the trading volume was 996,592 hands, the open interest was 504,794 hands, 4951, and the Y5-September spread was 1022.
News: 1. Data released by the General Administration of Customs of China on Sunday showed that China's soybean imports in the first two months of this year were slightly lower than the level of the same period last year because of the delay in exports due to rain in Brazil. From January to February, China's soybean imports reached 13.41 million tons, a decrease of 0.8% from 13.51 million tons in the same period last year. 2. AgRural, an agricultural consulting agency, said that as of the end of last week, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil for 2020/21 was 25%. The progress of the week was 10%, but it was still far below the 40% harvest rate in the same period last year.
Market price: domestic soybean price is 6000. The price of soybean meal from oil plants in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu: 3590,120. Dealers in Tianjin area offer 10100 first-class soybean oil. Zhangjiagang dealer quoted 10400. Guangzhou traders quoted 10220. (Unit: Yuan/Ton)
Warehouse receipt inventory: Bean One Warehouse Receipt 8282 lots, 312 lots; Bean Second Warehouse Receipt 0 lots, 0 lots. Soybean meal warehouse receipt 23550 lots, 0. Soy oil warehouse receipts were 3669 lots and -575 lots. As of the week of February 26, the total soybean meal inventory of oil plants in major coastal areas in China was 748,600 tons, an increase of 51,700 tons from 696,900 tons last week, an increase of 7.42%, and an increase of 104.7% from 365,700 tons in the same period last year. . As of the week of February 26, the total inventory of edible palm oil in ports across the country was 673,700 tons, a decrease of 0.1% from 674,500 tons last week, and an increase of 68,800 tons or 11.37% from 604,900 tons in the same period last month.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions in Douyi 2105 contracts 63238, -12162, short positions 66506, -12297, net positions -3268; the top 20 long positions in Douyi 2104 contracts 7618, -478, short positions 9138, -147, and net positions -1520 . Soybean meal 2105 top 20 long 769367, -26796, short 842725, -7133, net position -73358. The top 20 soybean oil 2105 contracts are long 314072,6170, short 370580,401, and net position -56508. (Unit: hand)
View summary: Bean 1: With the gradual consumption of grass-roots surplus grain, grass-roots farmers have a strong sense of hoarding grain, traders are difficult to purchase, the circulation of soybeans in the market has decreased, coupled with continued global inflation, international food prices have generally risen, and the arrival price of imported soybeans The price of domestic soybeans has been rising continuously, driven by imported soybeans. At the same time, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued a document to implement the key tasks of "increasing corn and stabilizing soybeans". The policy dividend supported the further increase of domestic soybean prices, which brought benefits to the soybean market. However, downstream protein factories are not very enthusiastic about purchasing high-priced soybeans, and mostly adopt a wait-and-see attitude, which brings disadvantages to domestic soybeans. On the whole, short-term benefits have an advantage, and soybean prices may continue to be strong.
Bean 2: The report released by the Brazilian consulting agency AgRural on Monday showed that the pace of soybean harvest in Brazil accelerated last week, but it is still lower than the same period last year and the historical average. As of February 25, Brazil's 2020/21 soybean harvest was completed by 25%, 10% higher than a week ago, but still lower than 40% in the same period last year. It is also the slowest harvesting pace in the same period since 2010/11. The exchange increased Argentina's output in 2020/2021 by 49 million tons, which was previously expected to be 47 million tons. The recent rainfall has set a turning point for production, eliminating the market's worries about the recurrence of the drought in 2018 and forming a certain degree of suppression on the disk. So overall, the U.S. soybeans have formed a trend of high volatility, which has limited impact on the domestic disk. It is expected that Bean 2 will maintain a trend of high volatility, and the intraday homeopathic operation will be the mainstay.
Soybean meal: From the perspective of U.S. soybeans, U.S. soybeans still maintain a tight supply, coupled with higher crushing profits, which stimulates the crushing level of U.S. soybeans and continues to consume U.S. soybean stocks. In South America, the rainfall in Argentina will be below normal in the next two weeks, once again threatening the planting in Argentina. In Brazil, the harvest is slow due to the impact of rainfall, which also limits the supply of soybeans. Generally, it is expected that the US soybeans will remain Maintain a strong trend, supporting domestic beans. From the perspective of soybean meal fundamentals, affected by the recent rise of swine fever, farmers have sold more slaughters and their enthusiasm for restocking has been affected. The pig stock has declined for two consecutive months from January to February. In addition, the aquaculture industry has not yet started. The demand for soybean meal has been hit. After the year, the transaction of soybean meal was relatively weak, the stock of soybean meal rose to a certain extent, and some oil plants had the phenomenon of swelling the stock, which dragged down the price of meal. However, imports of soybeans are currently limited, and the start-up of oil plants may be restricted in the future. Meal prices may maintain a volatile trend in the short-term, and intraday homeopathy is the main operation.
Soybean oil: From the perspective of U.S. soybeans, U.S. soybeans still maintain a tight supply, coupled with higher crushing profits, which stimulates the level of crushing of U.S. soybeans and continues to consume U.S. soybean stocks. In South America, the rainfall in Argentina will be below normal in the next two weeks, once again threatening the planting in Argentina. In Brazil, due to the impact of rainfall, the harvest progress is slow, which also limits the supply of soybeans. Generally, it is expected that US soybeans will remain Maintain a strong trend, supporting domestic beans. In addition, OPEC unexpectedly stated that it will postpone the current production cut to the end of April. Crude oil futures rose sharply and hit the highest level since 2019, boosting the trend of oils and fats. From the perspective of oil and fat fundamentals, after the holiday, the delivery of fats and oils has increased. Although the crushing capacity of oil plants has rebounded, the inventory of soybean oil has fallen. In addition, the inventory pressure of palm oil and vegetable oil is not large. Form a better support. On the whole, the overall fundamentals of oils and fats are still strong, and they are treated with more ideas.
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