1. Zinc price trend

Zinc prices fluctuated and adjusted in March, and the zinc market rose while struggling. As of March 31, the average zinc price was 21,766.67 yuan/ton, which was a slight increase of 0.74% compared with the zinc price of 21,66.67 yuan/ton on March 1. The zinc market rose cautiously.

2. China Purchasing Managers Index in March

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in March, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 51.9%, 1.3 percentage points higher than the previous month, and the manufacturing industry rebounded. Both ends of supply and demand rebounded simultaneously, imports and exports returned to the prosperous range, and the macro economy was positive. The zinc market is in sufficient demand, and the zinc market is generally positive.

3. Social inventory of zinc ingots

The social inventory of the zinc market remained stable at a high level, and the zinc market was adequately supplied. In March, the zinc market inventory declined slightly, and the zinc market destocking intensified, and the zinc market has a greater momentum in the future.

4. Zinc processing fee

Due to the tight supply of mines, the processing fee paid by miners to smelters for refined zinc has dropped from US$300/ton a year ago to US$200/ton in 2021. China's domestic zinc concentrate processing fee dropped to 3,600-4,200 yuan/ton in March, which is the lowest level since September 2018, and much lower than the 6,500 yuan/ton in early 2020. Lower processing fees may force zinc smelting The factory cut production. The output of zinc smelters has decreased, the supply of zinc market has decreased, and the market of zinc market has risen.

5. Analysis

Compared with the rapid recovery of the domestic economy, the EU economy was dragged down by the epidemic and the recovery was frustrated, the global non-ferrous sector was under pressure and the domestic zinc market followed the weakening. However, the overall domestic economy has recovered rapidly. The decline in zinc market inventories is good for the zinc market, and the decline in zinc concentrate processing fees has also hit the enthusiasm of zinc smelting enterprises. The zinc market is likely to decline in production in the future. The zinc market is generally adequate but supply and demand Overall tight. The zinc market's rising support still exists. The zinc price is expected to fluctuate slightly in the future, and the zinc market is cautiously optimistic.

Related listed companies: Zhongjin Lingnan (000060), Chihong Zinc Germanium (600497).

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