After the start of the new year in 2021, the price of pigs continued to fall. As of April 15, the average price of pigs in the live market had fallen to 23 yuan/kg, a drop of over 34% from the beginning of the year. Under the drag of falling pig prices, the soybean meal market has been weakening and has continued to bottom out, and the oil and fats have not had enough power to pull up. Since mid-March, the agricultural product index has also begun to dive, falling for a month, with a decline of more than 5%.

Oversupply, pig prices continue to fall

In the first quarter, the increase in the supply of domestic hog market led to the continued weak adjustment of domestic hog prices. After the Spring Festival, the demand for meat declined. The continued weakness of hog prices induced farmers to sell slaughter hogs. The problem of strong supply and weak demand in the domestic hog market became prominent. Continued to fall in mid-to-late March, farmers have increased their intention to sell pigs in slaughter to realize cash, and the demand for terminal meat is still weak. The price of slaughterhouses purchased at reduced prices, and the price of pigs continued to fall. It fell to mid-April, and the price of pigs in some areas has fallen below. "10 yuan" mark, a drop of nearly 35%.

Pig prices plummeted, soybean meal bottomed out, and agricultural products entered a downward channel

At the same time that the pigs fell sharply in the first quarter, soybean meal also started a long way to fall due to its impact. From January 15 to April 15, it fell 17.91% in three months. The decline in soybean meal was mainly due to the shadow of African swine fever, cautious procurement in the aquaculture industry, weaker feed demand, weak rebound in soybean meal, and greater inventory pressure. The market continued to be at the front line of 740,000 tons, and the market continued to be weak. Although the soybean meal hogs fell sharply in the first quarter, the oil and fats sector performed strongly, and the agricultural product index overall strengthened. Starting in mid-March, pig soybean meal continued to fall, oils and fats also began to dive high, agricultural products as a whole entered a downward channel, and the index continued to decline. The agricultural sideline index on April 15 was 1186 points, down 5% from mid-March.

SunSirs agricultural product analysts believe that on April 15, soybean meal hog prices have fallen to a low level, showing a rebound trend, the oil market has also picked up, and the agricultural product index has risen by 7 points in a single day. In the second quarter, the US soybean planting period is approaching, and the subject of weather speculation is still there. Soybean meal is expected to continue to bottom out and rebound. The price of pigs has fallen to the bottom, and the downside is limited. Oil and fat inventories are low, and there is still room for growth in the market outlook. It is expected that the agricultural product index has limited room to fall and the future growth is expected.

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