Last week (4.12-4.16), the domestic BR market weakened, and the ex=factory price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber of some manufacturers decreased significantly. According to the monitoring of SunSirs, as of April 16, the ex-warehouse price of Daqing BR of PetroChina Northeast was 12,500 RMB/ ton.

The supply side dropped slightly, supporting the BR price. According to SunSirs, Maoming and Yangzi Shunding units continue to shut down, and the 150,000 ton/ year BR units in Zhongshan and Yanshan started to shut down for about 40 days in early April. Although the load of Jinzhou, Dushanzi and other units increased, the overall output of Shunding rubber decreased compared with the previous period.

After the sharp drop in raw material prices, there was a slight rise last week, and the cost side stopped falling. According to the monitoring of SunSirs, as of April 16, the butadiene price was 6,696 RMB/ ton, up 2.90% from 6,507 RMB/ ton at the beginning of the week, and down 14.80% from March 31.

On the demand side, the downstream demand is still rigid demand. It is understood that last week, the tire operating rate is still high: the semi steel tire operating rate is around 75%, and the full steel tire operating rate is around 78%.

SunSirs analysts believe that although the price of raw material butadiene has dropped by about 14% since the end of March, and the lower cost side has led to the downward risk of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber, at present, there is little pressure on the supply and demand fundamentals of BR, and the rebound of crude oil is supported by the cost side, it is expected that China BR will stop falling and stabilize in the future.

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