Price trend

According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the price of yellow phosphorus fell in October. At the beginning of the month, the average price of yellow phosphorus was 19,166.67 RMB/ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 19,000 RMB/ton. The price fell 0.87% during the month,.

On October 29, the yellow phosphorus commodity index was 120.25, which was the same as October 28, which was 25.49% lower than the highest point of 161.39 points (2019-07-28) in the cycle, which was 33.64% higher than the lowest point of 89.98 on September 5, 2018. (Note: Cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

Analysis review

Product: In October, after the price of yellow phosphorus rose a little at the beginning of the month, there was a downward trend in the middle of the month. Later, it was affected by the ‘inspection of the three phosphorus’, and the price stopped falling and stabilized. By the end of the month, the overall price of yellow phosphorus has not changed much, and the price has fallen slightly, but the price is still at a high level. According to the inspection by the central environmental protection group, the enterprises in Yunnan Province started to decline, and the market supply was tight. Some enterprises mainly supply early orders, and the external quotation was suspended. At present, the main quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 19000 RMB/ton. The main quotation in Sichuan is about 18500-19000 RMB/ton. The overall market is short of spot goods, traders are mainly wait-and-see, taking goods more cautiously, market demand is relatively light, and yellow phosphorus quotation is mainly stable.

Industrial chain: This month, the upstream phosphorus ore market continued to be weak and operated stably. As of October 25, the sales of phosphorus ore market in Sichuan Province is general. The price of 26% high grade magnesium (magnesium oxide 6) phosphate ore in Mabian, Sichuan Province is around 230 RMB/ton. The market of phosphorus ore in Guizhou Province is stable, and the price of 30% grade phosphate ore car plate in Guizhou Province is 360-400 RMB/ton. The market of phosphorus ore in Hubei Province is weak, and the price of 28% ammonium phosphate ore ship plate is around 390-400 RMB/ton. The trading of downstream phosphoric acid and phosphate enterprises is weak, and the enterprises are cautious to watch the market. In the short term, the market price of phosphoric acid is mainly based on consolidation.

On October 29, the price index of yellow phosphorus and phosphoric acid commodity was 101.95, which was the same as October 28, which was 30.84% lower than the highest point in the cycle of 147.42 points (2019-07-21), which was higher than the lowest point of 77.84 points on August 15, 2019. 30.97%. (Note: Period refers to 2012-01-01 to present)

Market outlook

According to the yellow phosphorus analyst of SunSirs, yellow phosphorus enterprises are limited in driving this month, and the overall market of yellow phosphorus is tight in spot. However, the downstream demand is also insufficient. Most traders are mainly wait-and-see, and they are more cautious in taking goods, which is difficult to form a strong support for the market. It is expected that the high price of yellow phosphorus will be mainly consolidated.

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