1. Price data

As of April 26, the average ex-factory price of domestic local refining hydrogenated naphtha was 6475.00 RMB/ton, down 0.19% compared with 6487.50 RMB/ton on April 19. The actual transaction price of local refining hydrogenated naphtha was about 6500 RMB/ton.

As of April 26, the average ex-factory price of domestic local straight run naphtha was 6315.00 RMB/ton, down 0.39% compared with 6340.00 RMB/ton on April 19, and the actual transaction price of local refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 6350 RMB/ton.

The Naphtha Commodity Index on April 26 was 79.91, down 0.07 points from yesterday, down 22.13% from the peak of 102.62 (2012-09-24) in the cycle, and up 89.18% from the low point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: Period: 2012-09-01 to present)

2. Analysis of Influencing Factors

This week to refinery naphtha prices fell slightly, refinery inventory pressure is large, just need to deal mainly.

Upstream: Oil prices fell on upbeat economic data in the United States and Europe and the prospect of an economic recovery, but concerns about a surge in new cases in India and Japan capped gains.

Downstream: According to the SunSirs monitoring, this week the overall price of toluene continued to rise, the price of toluene on April 18 at 5641 RMB/ton, April 25 at 5671 RMB/ton, 30 RMB/ton more than last week, an increase of 0.53%. This week, the price of mixed xylene rose continuously. On April 18th, the price of mixed xylene rose to 5770 RMB/ton, and on April 25th, it rose to 5790 RMB/ton, 20 RMB/ton higher than last week, an increase of 0.35%. As for the PX market, the price of PX remained stable this week. As of the 26th, the domestic ex-factory price of PX was RMB 6,400 / ton, which remained unchanged compared with the price at the beginning of the week.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, in the 16th week of 2021 (4.19-4.23), 9 commodities in the energy sector had a month-on-month rise in the list of commodity price rises and falls, among which 1 commodity increased by more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The top three commodities were coke (5.32%), thermal coal (4.11%) and methanol (2.87%). There were a total of 5 kinds of commodities that fell from the previous quarter, and 1 kind of commodities that fell by more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the number of monitored commodities in the sector. Drop the first 3 products of liquefied natural gas (6.94%) respectively, WTI crude oil (2.79%), liquefied gas (2.73%). This week the average rise or fall for 0.08%.

3. Future forecast

SunSirs energy analysts believe that the recent naphtha market by the impact of international crude oil fluctuations in the price of small fluctuations, Naphtha refinery inventory pressure is larger, the downstream just need to purchase mainly, but some of the downstream before the festival a small amount of stock, Naphtha refinery prices are expected to rise shortly.

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