Price trend

The melamine market rose strongly in April, and the price broke through 10,000 yuan to a new high. According to the monitoring sample data of SunSirs, as of April 26, the average price of melamine enterprises was 11,500 RMB/ton, an increase of 22.56% compared with the price at the beginning of the month, and an increase of 125.49% compared with the same period last year.

Analysis review

In the first half of April, the market for melamine rose steadily. Some companies were export-oriented, and domestic trade demand was just in demand. Manufacturers had many pending orders, spot supply was tight, companies had no pressure to sell, and factories had a strong mentality. In the second half of the month, upstream urea prices stopped falling and rebounded, cost support rose, demand-side exports were better, and domestic trade performance was average. Affected by pre-received orders, market tightness continued, and manufacturers' quotations pushed up. On the 26th, the mainstream price of melamine in the domestic market was around 11,200-12,000 RMB/ton.

Urea upstream, the urea market in Shandong increased on April 26. In terms of demand: agricultural demand was mostly sporadic procurement; downstream compound fertilizer and rubber sheet plants increased slightly, and most of them follow the market mainly On the supply side: At present, the operating rate of urea enterprises is about 70%, which is down, and the daily output is about 150,000 tons. The urea enterprise equipment was overhauled, and the supply side was tightened..

According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, on April 26, 2021, there were 23 commodities in the chemical sector that rose month-on-month in the commodity price list. Among them, there was 1 commodity that increased by more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the number of monitored commodities in this sector; the top 3 commodities with an increase were melamine (9.52%), acetic acid (3.69%), and acetic anhydride (3.03%). A total of 19 commodities fell from the previous month, and 1 commodity fell more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the number of monitored commodities in this sector; the top 3 products that fell were epoxy resin (-6.72%) and polymeric MDI (- 2.16%), hydrogen peroxide (-2.10%). The average daily increase and decrease was 0.18%.

Market outlook

The melamine analyst of SunSirs believes that the upstream urea price has risen recently, the cost support has been strengthened, and the downstream cost is under pressure. It is just necessary to passively follow up. The tight supply supports the upward mentality of manufacturers. It is expected that the melamine market may be firm in the short term and more need to pay attention to market news guidance.

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