Price trend

As of April 29, 2021, the domestic reference price of vinyl cyanide remained at 14,766.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.21% compared with the price of the previous working day, and the price remained the same compared with the beginning of the week, but decreased compared with March 29 9.78%.

Market analysis

Since mid-February 2021, the price of vinyl cyanide has continued to rise due to factors such as rising raw material costs and imbalances in supply and demand. It rose to 16,500 yuan/ton on March 10, the highest price in the past five years. After entering March, the price of vinyl cyanide began to fall in the second half of the month due to the impact of the price of upstream raw materials, and the market reference price was lowered to around 16,300 yuan/ton. In April, the reference price of vinyl cyanide market continued to fall. Last week, the reference price of vinyl cyanide continued to fall slightly. However, the intermediary's offer remained firm and maintained a wait-and-see attitude. At the beginning of this week, the reference price of vinyl cyanide in the domestic market fell to 14,500 yuan/ton and remained stable until the end of April; upstream manufacturers had no notifications such as changes in equipment overhaul capacity, intermediary quotations remained stable, and the fundamentals of the domestic market remained unchanged. The transaction is normal. In addition, this week will usher in the May Day holiday. Downstream users have the willingness to stock up, which may slightly increase the transaction atmosphere. However, the middlemen are more cautious about the price of vinyl cyanide, the price increase momentum is insufficient, and the market has a strong bearish sentiment. Trading volume is still limited.

Propylene prices fell sharply in the second half of March and rebounded at the end of the month. Market prices rose slowly in early April, and began to stabilize on the 23rd. Propylene in the United States was again markedly lowered on April 20. Propylene prices in Asia have frequently increased slightly in recent days, all of which have a certain impact on the propylene market. There is no pressure on propylene market inventory, and some devices are still under maintenance. The supply of goods in Shandong is slightly tight.

On the 28th, the domestic price of nitrile rubber was 21,166 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.85% from the previous day and a decrease of 8.59% from the beginning of April. The weak demand for raw materials is sluggish, and it is expected that nitrile rubber will continue to run weakly in the later period. On April 28, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 94.20, a decrease of 12.07% from the highest point in the cycle of 107.13 points (2019-05-08), and an increase of 13.64% from the lowest point of 82.89 points on August 02, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2019-04-01 to the present) The market is stable in the short-term, and the demand still needs to be driven by the medium and long-term.

Market forecast

At present, the raw material propylene is operating weakly, the downstream nitrile rubber is slightly lower, the operating rate is low, and the performance is average, and there is resistance to the price of vinyl cyanide; the polyacrylamide market fluctuates slightly, the inventory at the end of the month is relatively sufficient, and the demand is not warm. According to the vinyl cyanide analysts of the business agency, the supply and demand side of the vinyl cyanide market is under-supported and the price increase momentum is weak. It is expected to consolidate in the short term, the market will be small, the direction is difficult to grasp, and the wait-and-see sentiment will increase. More attention will be paid to the specific trend Market news guidance.

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