Shandong is a traditional peanut production area and a major processing area. In addition, it is the peanut planting window now. With a series of market-focused issues, the researcher of Nanhua Futures started a 5-day Shandong area under the organization of the Zhengzhou Exchange. Peanut research. This survey mainly focused on the new crop peanut planting willingness, the delivery standard index details, the impact of imported peanuts on the current and future supply, etc., and visited a number of peanut industry chain farmers, traders, port warehouses, oil factories and other aspects. Companies such as delivery inspection agencies hope to gather the voices of the industry to interpret the fundamentals of peanuts from different angles, and help investors have a deeper understanding of the future trend of peanuts.
Research time: the afternoon of April 26
Researched company: A Port Warehouse Co., Ltd.
Company: Mainly engaged in peanut warehousing, logistics, import and export customs clearance
1. Most of the imported peanuts are directly picked up by the port. In the early stage, Tianjin and Huangpu Port in Guangdong had more imports.
2. Regarding the relevant indicators of imported rice aflatoxin, the quality of Sudanese rice is relatively stable and the pass rate is relatively high. The annual output of Sudanese peanuts is basically more than 2 million tons. After the harvest in November, the shelling will be completed around December, and part of the peanuts will be supplied to the country. The time to arrive in China is about one month, and it will arrive in China in February at the earliest.
3, Senegal's peanuts have been transported for a long time this year, resulting in indicators such as acid prices that are relatively high, and the pass rate is lower than that of Sudanese peanuts.
4. From the beginning of the year to the present, the imported rice from the warehouse is basically Sudanese rice. Senegalese rice is being imported one after another until July.
Research time: the afternoon of April 26
Researched company: A large oil plant
Company: Mainly engaged in peanut trading, peanut squeezing and sales of finished products
1. The moisture content of African rice after harvest is lower than that of domestic peanuts, about 9%, while the moisture content of African rice is only 3%-5% when it is traded.
2. The oil content of the old-cropped domestic peanuts this year is relatively low, basically at 45%-46% in previous years, while this year's old-cropped peanuts are generally around 40%-42%.
3. The crushing cost of this company is 300-400 yuan, considering that the storage of kernels will make peanut oil more fragrant, so the oil plant basically considers storing peanuts freshly pressed in storage.
4. At present, the mechanization of peanuts in my country is still around 30%, which has not greatly improved, and the receipts mainly rely on handwork. In addition, there are few large-scale peanut farmers, mainly because of the limitations of capital and manpower and other factors that cannot reach the level of large-scale planting of crops such as corn and wheat.
5. In terms of crop substitution, the peanut planting land in Shandong, Yantai, Weihai and other areas in the south is not easy to be replaced, while the plain area is easier to replace, because some hilly areas can only grow peanuts and have strong drought resistance capabilities, while peanuts are mainly Corn, an alternative crop, is more suitable for moist and fertile land.
6. The operating rate of peanut squeezing mainly considers the sales situation, and the production is determined by sales. However, the price of peanut oil in the sales terminal cannot be raised, and the people's willingness to accept it is limited. It is possible that as the overall price level rises, the terminal will gradually accept the price of peanut oil.
7. Domestic acquisitions basically ended in mid-June, and the current stage is already in the final stage. Imported rice will end in Africa before June to July, and it may be imported Indian rice later.
8. As for aflatoxin, oil-bearing rice will be inspected according to the national standard, while the requirements for food rice are higher. The manufacturers will go to the production area to investigate and exclude areas that exceed the standard. Water needs to be added when peanuts are husked. The process of adding water will not produce aflatoxin.
9. Because peanut futures have a short running time and have not been delivered, the company has not intervened in hedging for the time being.
Research time: the morning of April 27
Researched company: B large oil plant
Company: Mainly engaged in peanut trading, peanut squeezing and sales of finished products
1. The plant purchased more rice this year, accounting for 60%-70% of the total. The sources of imports are mainly from Africa and India. Africa has just started to import to the factory, while India started importing last year, and subsequent imports will account for the majority of African rice. At present, there are not many domestically produced rice on the market, and imported rice dominates. This year the factory also imported a portion of peanut oil.
2. The current stock of peanut kernels is the same as last year. At this stage, rice has begun to be stored in the cold storage, and will be used for oil extraction during the peak season from June to August. The small-package oil from the plant is mainly sold to Shandong and Tangshan, and some are sold online. The bulk oil is sold throughout the country. The price of peanut oil rose earlier than other fats, but it did not follow closely when the subsequent bulk fats continued to rise.
3. Years ago, when the farmers raised their own prices, the oil plant purchases were actually very small, and the price increase was overdrawn during that period. The current purchase price is up to 9,400-9500 yuan/ton, and the domestic rice purchases are relatively small at this stage.
4. The standard of futures delivery products is preferred to the purchase standard of oil companies, and the premium is about 300 yuan. The standard of delivery products can be small-sized pressed peanut oil, but large-sized pressed peanut oil will be somewhat uneconomical. After the peanut futures were listed, they have not yet actively participated in the market. When raw materials fluctuate sharply, they have considered intervening in futures tools.
The plant's oil press workshop
Research time: the afternoon of April 27
Researched company: A peanut screening plant
Company: Mainly engaged in peanut screening, trading, storage, and peanut food processing and sales
1. The cost of a constant temperature warehouse is about 30 yuan/ton/day, and the storage cost at room temperature is about 18 yuan/ton/day. The temperature of the constant temperature warehouse is generally below 10℃, and for insurance purposes it is below 7℃. The screening cost is about 150 yuan/ton, and the cost of a small screening plant may be lower.
2. The color sorter of this factory can screen out some peeled, sprouting, moldy peanuts with high precision, which effectively increases the pass rate of peanuts.
3. The production of Pingdu peanuts is actually not much, but it is still a very important distribution center for trade transactions. The annual transaction volume is very large. Only in the township of Hejiadian, its annual trade volume is probably more than 200,000 tons.
4. In terms of exports, the EU itself has reduced demand due to the epidemic. Furthermore, due to the epidemic, the international shipping price has increased by about four or five times. In a normal year, a 20-foot container would cost US$1,700 to 1,800, and now it is US$5,000 per cabinet. After the freight is too high, the demand for exports is poor. Orders for exports to the EU fell by about 50%, and orders from Japan and South Korea fell by about 20%.
5. The price of delivery products estimated on the spot of old crops is about 9,600 yuan/ton-9700 yuan/ton.
Research time: the morning of April 28
Researched company: C medium and large peanut oil factory
Company: Mainly engaged in peanut trading, peanut squeezing and sales of finished products
1. Imports accounted for about half of the total purchases. Senegal’s imported rice was originally imported in April, but this year due to the delay of the shipping schedule, it mainly began to arrive at the port in May, and because of the long shipping time, part of Senegal’s rice was imported this year. The acid value of rice is around 2, which is certain to exceed the standard. Some traders have already booked this year. The newly sown American rice in 2021 will be sold and replanted in advance. The trader’s contract is a flat price. The trader mainly bears the exchange rate risk. The quality of American rice is generally no problem. .
2. Because peanut oil is not sold smoothly after the year, the operating rate has declined, and many large peanut oil machines are shutting down for maintenance. Baking and oil pressing were originally not overhauled during this time period, but there was no order for overhauling.
3. Some spot merchants were concerned that peanut futures had not been delivered and did not actively participate in the use of futures instruments for hedging, and the contract time of peanut futures was a bit far away, and traders were concerned about the financial cost of capital occupation. However, after May, as traders’ cash flow is released from imported rice and inventories, some traders may consider hedging.
Research time: the afternoon of April 28
Researched company: A peanut food factory
Company: Mainly engaged in peanut import and export trade, peanut food processing and sales
1. It is estimated that the planting area of new peanuts in Jiaodong, Shandong will be reduced to a certain extent, firstly because of the overall reduction in spring land this year, and the higher subsidy for alternative crop corn. The planting area in Hebei is expected to increase as a whole, and the area in areas such as Tangshan and Ruanzhou may increase.
2. The plant will store peanuts in the cold storage when the temperature exceeds 15°C. The temperature of the cold storage is 3-5°C.
3. The plant mainly exports edible peanuts, with 70% of peanuts going to Japan and 30% going to South Korea. The epidemic has little impact on Japan and South Korea's peanut exports, but it has a greater impact on exports to the EU.
4. The Shandong screening plant currently has little stock, and the stock of peanuts is mainly in the oil plant. The grass-roots inventory in Henan is estimated to be 10%-15%, and the grass-roots inventory in the Northeast is estimated to be about 10%.
5. In terms of subsidies for peanuts, among the major producing areas, Shandong and Northeast have basically no subsidies, while Henan peanut seeds are directly distributed to grassroots farmers.
Research time: the morning of April 29
Researched company: A peanut testing agency
Company: Mainly engaged in independent third-party inspection of oil crops
1. Peanut film mulching is beneficial to the absorption of nutrients by crops. However, plasticizers have been detected in peanut oil recently. The reason may be that one of the pipes may be plastic during the production process, or the peanut crop may affect the film mulching in the field. Certain adsorption.
2. Judging from past cases, peanuts in Henan are more likely to exceed the standard than aflatoxin in Shandong. Taking into account the uneven distribution of aflatoxin in the sample of peanut species, the rationality of sampling during testing is very important. At the same time, Aspergillus flavus will continue to rise even in the cold storage, in order to meet the standards, it is necessary to pick out moldy grains.
3. The testing methods used by peanut oil plants are generally quick testing, while third-party testing takes about 2 days. The oil factory generally produces qualitative results, such as exceeding or not exceeding the standard, while the third-party testing agency gives specific values. Combination can be considered when testing, for example, it can be qualitative first and then quantitative.
4. The number of sampling points for a sampling plan for aflatoxin in the European Union, and all the sampling quantities, are required to be more detailed. For example, if the sample is larger than 500 tons, 100 tons will be used as a batch, and then 100 A point, and then a total of 20 kilograms are taken for detection and the detection of aflatoxin also requires real-time detection of dichotomous samples.
Research time: the afternoon of April 29
Researched company: D large peanut oil factory
Company: Mainly engaged in peanut trading, peanut squeezing and sales of finished products
1. The plant imports more peanut oil, accounting for more than 50% of the total imported peanut oil in the country. The main sources of imports are Brazil, Argentina, Sudan, India, and the United States. There are also imported peanuts. From the perspective of the three years from 2018 to 2020, the quality of Sudan's imported rice should be relatively stable, and all the oil plants should pick up more Sudanese goods. Sudan rice will generally be shipped in two to three months, and will be sealed off after the export. The remaining peanuts are processed locally in China, and peanut oil will be exported after processing. Indian rice is basically not available for purchase, and traders have basically bought them from farmers and grade them, because the grading premium will be high.
2. From the perspective of the sales of peanut seeds, it is estimated that the number of new peanuts in Henan and Liaoning should be less than the peanuts planted in 19 and 20.
3. I think that the price of peanuts has risen after the year for two or three consecutive years. The old-crop peanuts have been shipped less before the year. After the year, the price of peanuts has not risen as much as in previous years. Instead, the price has fallen faster with the temperature.
4. After the new peanuts are listed, in order to ensure the people's enthusiasm for planting in the coming year, a certain amount of purchase will be carried out, depending on the relative price.
From the perspective of different dimensions, the spot price of old crop peanuts has fallen to a certain extent, and there are not many grassroots inventories. The current inventory of oil plants is relatively sufficient, and the downstream acceptance of peanut oil price increase is low, so the purchase enthusiasm Limited, domestic peanuts generally show a weak supply and demand situation. Imported rice is still showing an upward trend this year, and the willingness to import peanut oil is also increasing. In terms of new crop peanuts, the spot price of peanuts has not risen after the year as in previous years. Farmers’ enthusiasm for planting is limited, and the alternative crop corn can be subsidized. Although there are certain restrictions on substitution due to geological relations, it is expected that it will also have an impact on the planting area of peanuts. influences. The planting area of new crop peanuts is expected to decrease slightly. At present, traders are concerned that the implementation of the delivery standard has not actively participated in hedging on a large scale, and there is a certain deviation between the market trend and the old crop spot situation. It is expected that as the delivery day approaches and after a complete delivery process, the industry's enthusiasm for participating in peanut futures will increase, and the market will gradually approach the fundamentals.
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