Domestic disk: Zhengzhou Cotton 2109 contract closed at 15840, -1.83% from the previous trading day; the highest report was 16230, the lowest report was 15760; the trading volume was 580670, and the position was 551016, -22953; basis +362, +454; CF September-January The spread is 325, -20. CY2109 closed at 23710, -1.72% from the previous trading day; the highest was 24185, the lowest was 23505; the volume was 11238, and the position was 8006, -891; the basis was +1090, +490.
External disk trend: Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton futures closed up slightly on Wednesday, reversing the three-day losing streak. The US Department of Agriculture's supply and demand report showed that US cotton exports in 20/21 will increase, and output will continue to decline. The most actively traded ICE July cotton futures closed up 0.10 cents, or 0.11%, and settled at 88.23 cents/lb.
News: 1. Xinjiang weather forecast, from day to night on the 14th, Ili Prefecture, Bozhou, Tacheng area, Shihezi City and Kashgar area, Kezhou, Hotan area, Aksu area, Bazhou and other parts of the area and Altay area There was light to light rain in some parts of the northern mountainous area, the mountainous area of Urumqi City, the mountainous area of Changji Prefecture and other places. 2. The May supply and demand report released by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Tuesday showed that the United States' cotton production in the 2021/22 season is estimated to be 17 million bales. The 2020/21 cotton production is estimated at 14.61 million bales, and April is estimated at 14.7 million bales.
Spot: Cotton price index 3128B was 16202, down 16 from the previous day's spot price; cotton yarn price index C32S was 24800, which remained unchanged from the previous day's spot price. (Unit: Yuan/Ton)
Warehouse receipt inventory: 21,343 cotton warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou, +58, and 1677 effective forecasts.
Position analysis: On the day, the top 20 long positions of Zhengzhou Cotton Contract were 415,036 lots, short positions were 506,965 lots, and net short positions were 91929 lots. On that day, the top 20 long positions in the cotton yarn contract were 6,695 lots, short positions were 7,759 lots, and net short positions were 1064 lots.
View summary: In the May Global Cotton Supply and Demand Report released by the US Department of Agriculture: The total global production for 2020/21 is expected to increase by 1.393 million tons to 26.005 million tons from the previous month, and the consumption is expected to increase by 790,000 tons to 26.448 million tons. The global ending inventory was reduced by 538,000 tons to 19.811 million tons. In 2020/21, global cotton production has increased, but demand has increased and ending stocks have been reduced. Domestic cotton market: From the supply side, new cotton planting in the new year has basically ended and new seedlings have begun to enter the growth period, but the overall planting area is expected to be lower than expected. In 2021, the quota for cotton imports will be implemented. The short-term circulation of imported cotton is expected to increase, and the market supply is still loose. In terms of demand, downstream textile orders have increased. In April, textile and apparel exports increased significantly from the previous month. The better demand has formed a strong support for the cotton market. The recent excessively rapid growth of bulk commodities has resulted in a series of risks, and the State Council executive meeting proposed that effective responses should be taken. The cotton market demand remains positive, but loose supply still restrains the rise in cotton prices. Operationally, it is recommended that Zhengzhou Cotton 2109 contract mainly wait and see in the short term.
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