1. Price data

As of April 30, the mainstream ex-factory average price of domestic refining naphtha was 6487.50 RMB / ton, up 0.19% compared with 6475.00 RMB / ton on April 26. The actual transaction price of refining naphtha was about 6500 RMB / ton.

As of April 30, the mainstream ex-factory average price of domestic Di refining straight run naphtha was 6345.00 RMB / ton, up 0.48% compared with 6315.00 RMB / ton on April 26. The actual transaction price of Di refining hydrogenated naphtha was about 6400 RMB / ton.

The Naphtha Commodity Index was 80.07 on April 30, the same as yesterday, down 21.97% from the highest point of 102.62 (2012-09-24) in the cycle, and up 89.56% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: Period: 2012-09-01 to present)

2. Analysis of influencing factors

This week's refinery naphtha prices rose slightly, before the festival merchants stock, refinery inventory without pressure, good transactions.

Upstream: A sharp rise in international oil prices, strong U.S. economic data, and a weak U.S. dollar combined with expectations of a recovery in demand outweighing concerns about the outbreak in places like India.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of the business community, the overall price of toluene rose slightly this week, with the price of toluene at 5671 RMB / ton on April 26 and 5697 RMB / ton on April 30, up 26 RMB / ton, or 0.46%. The price of mixed xylene rose slightly this week. The price of mixed xylene was 5790 RMB / ton on April 26 and 5850 RMB / ton on April 30, up 60 RMB / ton or 1.04% compared with last week. In the PX market, the price of p-xylene remained stable this week. As of the 30th, the domestic ex-factory price of p-xylene was 6400 RMB / ton, which was flat compared with the price at the beginning of the week.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 17th week of 2021 (4.26-4.30), 12 commodities in the energy sector had a month-over-month rise in the list of commodity price rises and falls, among which 1 commodity increased by more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were WTI crude oil (5.14%), coke (4.81%) and petroleum coke (3.01%). There were a total of 3 kinds of commodities with the top 3 falling products being liquefied natural gas (-2.56%), MTBE(-1.27%), and liquefied natural gas (-0.11%). The average gain or loss for the week was 1.25%.

3. Future forecast

According to the energy analysts of SunSirs, the naphtha market has been affected by the rise of international crude oil recently, and the price has fluctuated slightly. There is no inventory pressure on the downstream naphtha before the festival, and there is no support from the downstream and cost. It is expected that the price of naphtha from local refineries will rise steadily after the festival.

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