1. Price trend

According to the monitoring of the trade association, the average price of thermal coal at the port on May 6 remained around 830 RMB/ton, and on May 7 the average price of thermal coal at the port was around 882.5 RMB/ton, with a one-day increase of 6.33%. On May 6, the thermal coal commodity index was 100.00, up 0.45 points compared with yesterday, down 20.00% compared with the highest point of 125.00 (2021-01-19) in the cycle, and up 123.71% compared with the lowest point of 44.70 on January 20, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to present)

2. Analysis of influencing factors

In terms of producing area, the main producing area of thermal coal maintained a stable state during the May Day holiday, and the sales situation at the pit head was good. The coal price in the Ordos area of Inner Mongolia was stable for the time being, but the coal supply was generally tight due to environmental inspection and other influences.

Downstream power plants: Power plants are at a low level now, and the peak of summer is coming. In May, power plants are more willing to replenish the stock, traders are reluctant to sell at a high price, and are optimistic about the futures market. Daqin line maintenance, the north port adjustment volume has picked up significantly, the current adjustment volume is about 300,000 tons more than the maintenance period. But the Bohai seaport inventory is at a low level. Data show that as of April 30, the inventory of Qinhuangdao Port is 4.42 million tons, down 115,000 tons compared with March 31.

Macro: the overall release of raw coal as expected. On April 16, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that China produced 340.76 million tons of raw coal in March, down 0.2% year on year, up 9.4% compared with March 2019, with a two-year average increase of 4.6%, with a daily average output of 10.99 million tons. Imports of coal reached 27.33 million tons, down 1.8 percent year-on-year. In the first quarter, China produced 970.56 million tons of raw coal, up 16.0% year on year, up 15.4% over the first quarter of 2019, and up 7.4% on average in the two years. Imports of coal were 68.46 million tons, down 28.5 percent year-on-year.

According to SunSirs analysts: The present stage of power coal supply whole tightening state, downstream plants have inventory requirements, good demand for thermal coal, and the upcoming summer peaks, demand for thermal coal is still strong inventory, and market sentiment is relatively hot, cherish price sales traders, more optimistic for the late as a whole, the whole thermal coal partial strong operation is given priority to, specific see the downstream market demand.

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