Last week, the black chain index staged a two-day market. Many varieties hit the daily limit in the first half of the week, and many varieties hit the daily limit in the second half of the week. The core of the black rise is the thread. In the past two months, the spiral rise has been the smoothest, while iron ore and coke have alternately strengthened. From the perspective of futures and spot performance: thread futures continued to be strong, and eventually spot prices rose; iron ore was dominated by spot prices, and the basis remained at a high level; coke spot rose first, and futures rose steadily. Last week's sharp correction was also due to bullish panic caused by price speculation in the domestic steel market survey.

After the two sessions, this round of black rise was jointly driven by Tangshan Environmental Protection's production restriction, carbon neutrality, and the goal of not increasing steel output. Therefore, the steelmaking profits of steel mills have risen very quickly, which provides room for iron ore to continue to rise at high levels. Tensions in Sino-Australian relations have ignited rising sentiment in the iron ore mine. Then the black rising sentiment reinforces each other.

At present, China's strict inspection of price speculation interrupted the self-reinforcing of this sentiment, so the subsequent callback must be very rapid. But what needs attention is that the current government is only investigating price speculation, and has not essentially changed the policy tendency of restricting production, and China-Australia relations are still in an unstable state. Therefore, the current sentiment-adjusted market can only be based on short-term tracking strategies, not an opportunity for trend-oriented positions.

Macro Quick View

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in April, the value added of industries above designated size nationwide increased by 9.8% year-on-year; the two-year average growth rate was 6.8%, 0.6% faster than in March; and the month-on-month increase was 0.52%.

National Bureau of Statistics: The impact of promoting carbon peaking and carbon neutrality on economic growth still needs to be observed.

On May 17, the Shanghai International Energy Exchange issued a public announcement on the revision of the "Shanghai International Energy Exchange Trading Rules".

Risk disclosure

1. This strategic view is made by researchers based on the information they have, and the actual results may be very different due to conditions. Investors must make independent trading decisions. The team and the company do not make any guarantees about the results of the transaction.

2. The market is uncertain, and the combination of past strategic views does not guarantee the correctness of current strategic views. The team and other researchers of the company may express opinions that differ from the views of this strategy.

3. Within the scope of the law, the company or its affiliates may conduct transactions on the products involved, or may provide services for other company transactions.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.