1. Price data
As of May 17, the mainstream ex-factory average price of domestic refining naphtha was 6735 RMB/ton, up by 0.90% compared with 6675 RMB/ton on May 10. The actual transaction price of refining naphtha was about 6800 RMB/ton.
As of May 17, the average ex-factory price of domestic local straight run naphtha is 6540 RMB/ton, up 0.96% compared with 6477.50 RMB/ton on May 10, and the actual transaction price of local straight run naphtha is about 6500 RMB/ton.
The Naphtha Commodity Index was 83.12 on May 17, 0.71 points higher than yesterday, 19.00% lower than the highest point of 102.62 (2012-09-24) in the cycle, and 96.78% higher than the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: Period: 2012-09-01 to present)
2. Analysis of influencing factors
Recently, the Ministry of Finance, the General Administration of Customs, and the State Administration of Taxation jointly announced Levying import consumption tax on some refined oil products (hereinafter referred to as the announcement):
- For imported products classified under tariff code 27075000, and less than 95% by volume of aromatic hydrocarbons distilled below 200 ℃, the consumption tax on import is levied at 1.52 RMB/liter unit tax on naphtha.
- For the imported products classified into the tariff codes 27079990 and 27101299, the consumption tax of import link shall be levied at the unit tax of 1.52 RMB/liter as naphtha.
- For imported products which are classified into tariff code 27150000 and distilled at 440 ℃ or below, the volume of mineral oil is more than 5%, the consumption tax of import link shall be levied at 1.2 RMB/liter unit tax of fuel oil.
According to the tax code mainly mentioned in the notice, the corresponding products are represented by mixed aromatics, light cycle oil, and cut back asphalt. The policy interpretation issued by the tariff Department of the Ministry of Finance points out that light cycle oil, mixed aromatics, and cut back asphalt usually contain more aromatics or asphalt components, and are generally not used as fuel oil; However, in recent years, a small number of enterprises import a large number of such products, process and produce fuel that does not meet the national standards, flow to the illegal business channels, endanger the fairness of the refined oil market, and cause greater social security risks and environmental pollution. To solve the above problems, the three departments announced that the relevant products will be included in the scope of consumption tax collection, which is conducive to standardizing the market order and promoting fair competition.
After the policy was issued, the price of naphtha increased by 50-200 RMB/ton, and the refinery inventory was under no pressure and the transaction was good.
Upstream: international oil prices fell first and then rose, mainly due to the recovery of major U.S. fuel pipelines. However, gasoline is still in excessive shortage in some parts of the United States, boosting oil prices.
Downstream: According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the price of toluene rose first and then fell this week. On May 9, the price of toluene was 5902 RMB/ton, and on May 16, it was 5986.20 RMB/ton, 84.20 RMB/ton higher than last week, an increase of 1.43%. In the first half of this week, toluene continued to rise in speculation, with positive talks on the floor; In the second half of the week, with the increase of downstream maintenance, the weak gasoline blending market and other negative effects, coupled with the decrease of Sinopec's listing price, the short market increased. This week, the price of mixed xylene rose first and then fell. On May 9, the price of mixed xylene was 6060 RMB/ton, and on May 16, the price was 5990 RMB/ton, down 70 RMB/ton or 1.16% compared with last week. In the PX market, the price of p-xylene remained stable this week. As of the 17th, the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 6400 RMB/ton, and the price remained flat.
Industry: according to the price monitoring of SunSirs, there are 10 commodities rising in the energy sector in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 19th week of 2021 (5.10-5.14), of which more than 5% of the commodities are 3, accounting for 18.8% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top 3 commodities were liquefied natural gas (19.98%), power coal (9.32%), dimethyl ether (5.03%). There are 5 commodities falling on a month-on-month basis, with the top three products being liquefied gas (-2.33%), WTI crude oil (-1.66%), Brent crude oil (-1.51%). This week, both rose and fell 2.52 per cent.
3. Future forecast
Energy analysts of SunSirs believe that the domestic refined oil price rose and international crude oil rebounded due to policy influence, and the naphtha refining market is expected to rise in the near future.
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