Futures: Soybean oil 2109 opened low on Thursday and recovered. It closed at 8880 (down 90). The total lightened more than 17,000 lots, and the trading volume increased slightly. The top 20 capital flows: long positions are dispersed to increase and decrease positions, and positions are reduced, and the concentration of funds is fine-tuned; short positions are dispersed and lightened, positions are greatly reduced, and concentration is weakened. The NOPA monthly report shows that due to tight soybean stocks to restrict crushing, the US soybean crush was less than expected in April, and US soybean oil stocks were low. The overall futures price continued to be strong, and the short-term pressure on the soybean oil formed support for the domestic soybean oil. Palm oil is in the cycle of increasing inventory, but domestic soybean oil stocks remain low. Soybean oil futures prices are high and fluctuated. Pay attention to the initiative of funds near 8900 points. Short-term or continue wide fluctuations. Do not chase the rise and fall. Pay attention to the trend of the external market and the changes in market expectations. 

Strategic analysis: The current high-level control policies have restrained some sectors, and market expectations have changed to a certain extent. External disks, supply and demand, and market sentiment factors have a comprehensive impact on the market. On the supply side, the recent US soybean planting progress has been relatively fast and the rainfall is normal, but the current low US soybean inventory affects the crush; the domestic soybean arrival to Hong Kong continues to increase, and China's imports of US soybeans may hit a new high this year. On the demand side, soybean oil stocks rebounded slightly from the month-on-month period, but the profit squeeze remained low, limiting the rate of stock recovery. In the long run, the tight supply and demand pattern of U.S. soybeans will continue, but there is no obvious upward drive in the short-term. Soybean oil generally tends to a high-level, wide-ranging, and highly volatile pattern. Operational reference: if the market is oversold to an important support zone, you can choose the opportunity to place multiple orders, and after a sharp increase, you can lighten up or hedge.

Market strategy: Soybean Oil 2109 may continue to fluctuate in the short term, and mainly sell high and buy low. Pay attention to the trend of external disk and changes in market expectations. Short-term operation: wait and see, if the market goes down and stabilizes in the 8750-8800 area, consider the weak storage to try more, if the market rises near 9000 and above, you can consider reducing the long and flat more; if the market is rising, the 9100-9200 area can be considered under pressure Weak storage was short-lived with loss, and the position fell near and below 8900 to close the position. Band operation: The market has fallen back and stabilized in the 8600-8700 area, which can be considered for placing more orders on the center line. Key short-term positions: 8800, 8950.

Market news: USDA: As of May 16, the US 21/22 soybean planting progress was 61%, the fastest record in the same period in history and 60% higher than market expectations. NOPA: The monthly report shows that in April the soybean crush in the US crushing industry fell to 160.31 million bu, which was lower than market expectations and was the second lowest level in 19 months, and the same crush was 177.54 billion bu. As of the end of April, US soybean oil inventories fell from 1.771 billion pounds in the previous month to 1.702 billion pounds, lower than expected, and 2.111 billion pounds in the same period last year. Brazil’s Ministry of Commerce and Trade: As of May 17, Brazil’s average daily export volume of soybeans in May was 880,000 tons, an increase of 25% from the same period last year, but slowed down from the first week of May, when the average export volume on Sunday exceeded 900,000 tons. . The reference price of Malaysian crude palm oil exports in May was set at 4533.4 ringgit/ton, higher than April’s 4331.48 ringgit/ton. According to Malaysian government regulations, when the price of crude palm oil is between 2250-2400 ringgit/ton, a 3% export tax will be imposed. When the price exceeds 3450 ringgit/ton, the export tax will reach the cap of 8%.

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