Futures: Soybean oil 2109 opened higher on Thursday and pulled up sharply, closing at 9112 (up 278), totaling more than 17,000 lots in Masukura, and trading volume increased. The top 20 capital flows: the long-term decentralized Masukura is the main, and the holding volume has greatly increased, and the concentration is enhanced; the short-term scattered repositioning, partial Masukura, the holding volume has increased, and the concentration has increased slightly. The tight U.S. soybean stocks affected the squeeze, and U.S. soybean oil stocks were low. The weekly crop growth report released by the USDA showed that the planting area of ​​U.S. soybeans was lower than expected during the week. The futures price of U.S. soybean oil rose strongly to a new high and remained strong overall. Currently, palm oil is in the cycle of increasing stocks, and domestic soybean oil stocks have rebounded slightly, but the low stocks year-on-year in previous years still support the low price of soybean oil. Affected by the new high of US soybean oil, domestic soybean oil has risen sharply, with short-term or high-level pressure fluctuations. Pay attention to the initiative of funds falling behind, and pay attention to external market trends and changes in market expectations.

Strategic analysis: The current high-level regulation and control plan to do a good job of ensuring the supply and price stability of bulk commodities, maintaining stable economic operation, policy adjustments affect the differentiation of commodities, foreign markets, supply and demand, and market sentiment factors comprehensively affect the market. On the supply side, the planting area of ​​US soybeans was lower than expected during the week. The current low US soybean inventory affects the squeeze to support soybean oil prices. Domestic soybean arrivals continue to increase. This year, China's imports of US soybeans may reach a new high. In terms of demand, soybean oil inventories have rebounded from the low level, but the profit margin is still low, limiting the rate of inventory recovery. In the long run, the tight supply and demand pattern of U.S. soybeans will continue, but there is no obvious upward driving factor in the short-term. Soybean oil as a whole tends to be high and strongly volatile. Operational reference: if the market is oversold to an important support zone, you can choose the opportunity to place multiple orders, and after a sharp increase, you can lighten up or hedge.

Market strategy: Soybean Oil 2109 is under short-term or high-level pressure fluctuations, and pay attention to the initiative of funds falling behind. Short-term operation: close the position and wait and see. If the market goes down and stabilizes in the 8800-8950 area, you can consider the wet storage to test more. If the market is under pressure in the 9200-9300 area, you can consider the wet storage to test empty. Swing operation: hold more than 5% of the capital position, and close the position below 9080. If the market drops to the 8700-8900 area and stabilizes, you can consider placing more orders on the band. If the market rises significantly above the pressure on 9200, you can consider reducing more and closing more. Key short-term positions: 9050, 9160.

Market news: USDA: As of May 16, the US 21/22 soybean planting progress was 61%, the fastest record in the same period in history and 60% higher than market expectations. NOPA: The monthly report shows that in April the soybean crush in the US crushing industry fell to 160.31 million bu, which was lower than market expectations and was the second lowest level in 19 months, and the same crush was 177.54 billion bu. As of the end of April, US soybean oil inventories fell from 1.771 billion pounds in the previous month to 1.702 billion pounds, lower than expected, and 2.111 billion pounds in the same period last year. Brazil’s Ministry of Commerce and Trade: As of May 17, Brazil’s average daily export volume of soybeans in May was 880,000 tons, an increase of 25% from the same period last year, but slowed down from the first week of May, when the average export volume on Sunday exceeded 900,000 tons. . The reference price of Malaysian crude palm oil exports in May was set at 4533.4 ringgit/ton, higher than April's 4331.48 ringgit/ton. According to Malaysian government regulations, when the price of crude palm oil is between 2250-2400 ringgit/ton, a 3% export tax will be imposed. When the price exceeds 3450 ringgit/ton, the export tax will reach the cap of 8%.

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