Futures: Sugar 2109 fluctuated up on Thursday, closing at 5636 (up 49), with a total of 11,000 lots of Masukura and a slight decrease in trading volume. The top 20 capital flows: Long and short positions are mainly scattered and increased, long positions have increased, and short positions have greatly increased. This year, the decline in output in some major producing countries and the recovery in demand after the epidemic have supported the upward shift in the overall focus of sugar prices. The recent high of Meitang has stabilized and rebounded. The current increase in domestic sugar production and imported sugar has alleviated the tight supply in the early stage. At the same time, the expectation of consumption recovery is still there. The market is optimistic in the mid-term. Sugar futures prices regained their support near 5500 and oscillated and stabilized. During the intraday bulls took the initiative to increase their positions. Strong volatility may continue in the short-term. Pay attention to the initiative of funds near 5600, pay attention to the trend of external disks and changes in market expectations.
Strategic analysis: The current macro easing is supporting commodity prices, but the high-level control policies on bulk commodities have phased impact on market trends. Short-term domestic spot supply is sufficient. After speculative funds leave the market, the market gradually returns to fundamentals. In terms of supply, domestic production increased, and sugar inventory was in a relatively high position year-on-year. Indian exports accelerated in the second quarter. Under the filing system, it is expected that my country's imports will remain high. In terms of demand, the peak consumption season is approaching and expectations are optimistic. The basis has fluctuated slightly in the near term, and the premium in the far month has been relatively large. In the medium and long term, the increase in demand and imports in the latter part of the second quarter will become the focus. In the future, the progress of the epidemic in India and developed countries and the pace of demand recovery will determine the space above sugar prices, and the overall pattern will remain strong. Operational reference: if the market is oversold to an important support zone, you can choose the opportunity to place multiple orders, and after a sharp increase, you can lighten up or hedge.
Market strategy: Sugar 2109 may continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term, pay attention to the initiative of funds near 5600. Short-term operation: wait and see, if the market goes down and stabilizes in the 5550-5600 area, you can consider doing more light storage, if the market goes up and under pressure near 5700, you can consider flattening more and reducing more. Band operation: if you hold 10% more capital positions or fall back to the 5450-5550 area to stabilize, you can consider placing more orders in the midline. If the market rises near and above 5800, consider flattening more and more. Short-term key positions: 5600, 5660.
Market news: As of the end of April, my country had produced a total of 10,539,600 tons of sugar (10,209,800 tons in the same period last year), and accumulated sales of 4,955,700 tons (5,527,700 tons in the same period last year). As of the end of April in the 20/21 crushing season, China had imported 3.92 million tons of sugar, an increase of 2.41 million tons over the same period last year. The Brazilian government agency issued a drought warning and is facing its worst drought in 91 years. Broker StoneX recently stated that the global sugar market is expected to shift from a shortage of this year to a slight surplus in the 2021/22 season (October to September) as the increase in output in countries such as India and Thailand overwhelmed the decrease in output in Brazil, the main producer. The Indian Sugar Manufacturers Association previously stated that as of the end of May, almost all sugar mills in India had stopped squeezing. General Administration of Customs: my country imported 1.43 million tons of sugar from January to April, a year-on-year increase of 910,000 tons.
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