Futures: Soybean oil 2109 was under pressure and fluctuated on Wednesday, and closed at 8722 (down 14). The total position was lightened by more than 9,000 lots, and the trading volume decreased. The top 20 capital flows: long positions are dispersed and lighten up, and the amount of positions held is greatly reduced, and the decline is slightly larger than that of short positions, and the concentration is weakened; the short positions are scattered and lightened, and the amount of positions held is greatly reduced, and the concentration is fine-tuned. The tight U.S. soybean stocks affected the squeeze. U.S. soybean oil stocks were low. The planting rate and good rate of U.S. soybeans this week were lower than expected. The futures prices of U.S. soybean oil remained strong as a whole. The Fed released the signal to withdraw from the macro easing, and the domestic price stabilization supervision was strengthened, and the overall commodity was under pressure. At present, palm oil is in the cycle of increasing stocks, domestic soybean oil stocks continue to rise, and total fat stocks exceed the level of the same period last year. In the soybean oil market, the funds continued to lighten their positions and adjusted the market. In the short-term or under pressure, they stepped back on the support zone. Pay attention to the initiative of key funds, and pay attention to the trend of the external market and changes in market expectations.
Strategic analysis: The current high-level regulation and control plan to do a good job of ensuring the supply and price stability of bulk commodities, maintaining stable economic operation, policy adjustments affect the differentiation of commodities, foreign markets, supply and demand, and market sentiment factors comprehensively affect the market. On the supply side, the U.S. soybean planting rate was lower than expected this week. The low U.S. soybean inventory affected the price of U.S. soybean oil. Domestic soybean arrivals continued to increase. This year, China’s imports of U.S. soybeans may reach a new high. In terms of demand, soybean oil transactions rebounded month-on-month, while inventories rebounded month-on-month, but the profit margin remained low, limiting the rate of inventory recovery. The drought in North America continues, the expected increase in palm oil production is on the rise, the Indian epidemic restricts the demand for oils and fats, and the overall pattern of soybean oil tends to be high. Operational reference: if the market is oversold to an important support zone, you can choose the opportunity to place multiple orders, and you can reduce your position or hedge after a sharp increase.
Market strategy: Soybean Oil 2109 may fall back to the support zone under short-term pressure, and pay attention to the initiative of key funds. Short-term operation: wait and see, if the market is under pressure in the 8850-9000 area, consider a short test in the wet storage area, and if the market stabilizes in the 8550-8650 area, you can consider a short test in the wet storage area. Swing operation (spot spot price can be used as a reference): Wait and see, if the market stabilizes in the 8500-8650 area, you can consider placing more orders on the band. If the market is under pressure near and above 8900, you can consider reducing more and more. Short-term key points: 8650, 8850.
Market news: USDA announced this week's crop growth report, showing that as of the week of June 6, the soybean planting rate in the United States was 90%, the market expected 92%, last week's 84%, and last year's 84%. USDA: As of May 16, the US 21/22 soybean planting progress was 61%, the fastest record in the same period in history and 60% higher than market expectations. USDA: The US soybean crush in April was lower than expected. In April this year, the US soybean crush was 5.0956 million tons (170 million bushels), a decrease of 9.8 percentage points from March and a decrease of 7.4% from April last year. As of the end of April, US soybean oil inventories fell from 1.771 billion pounds in the previous month to 1.702 billion pounds, lower than expected, and 2.111 billion pounds in the same period last year. Brazil's Ministry of Commerce and Trade: As of May 17, Brazil's average daily export volume of soybeans in May was 880,000 tons, an increase of 25% from the same period last year, but slowed down from the first week of May, when the average export volume on Sunday exceeded 900,000 tons. China Cereals and Oils Business Network: Domestic soybean oil stocks were 834,200 tons last weekend, a weekly increase of 47,500 tons, and 915,400 tons in the same period last year.
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