Futures: Sugar 2109 opened higher and oscillated on Wednesday, closing at 5469 (up 27), with a total of more than 7 thousand Masukura lots, and the trading volume dropped sharply. The top 20 capital flows: long positions are dispersed to increase and decrease positions, positions are slightly increased, and concentration is fine-tuned; short positions are individually dispersed and increase positions, and positions are slightly increased, and concentration is slightly increased. This year, the decline in production in some major producing countries and the recovery of demand after the epidemic have supported the upward shift of sugar prices. The recent high-level shock of Mesugar. The Fed tried to withdraw from the macro easing policy, and the overall commodity was under pressure to adjust. The current increase in domestic sugar production and imported sugar has eased the tight supply in the early stage and put pressure on the spot market. Long and short sugar futures continued to increase their positions, and the market returned to the low support zone. The capital game intensified, and short-term shocks or gradual shocks stabilized. Pay attention to the support situation near 5450, pay attention to the trend of the external market and changes in market expectations.

Strategic analysis: The current macro easing is supporting commodity prices, but the high-level control policies on bulk commodities have phased impact on market trends. Short-term domestic spot supply is sufficient. After speculative funds leave the market, the market gradually returns to fundamentals. In terms of supply, domestic production increased, and sugar inventory was in a relatively high position year-on-year. Indian exports accelerated in the second quarter. Under the filing system, it is expected that my country's imports will remain high. On the demand side, the peak consumption season is approaching, the premiums in the far month and the last month, the basis widened after the market plummeted. In the medium and long term, the increase in demand and imports in the latter part of the second quarter will become the focus. In the future, the progress of the epidemic in India and developed countries and the pace of demand recovery will determine the space above the sugar price, and the overall pattern will remain strong. Operational reference: if the market is oversold to an important support zone, you can choose the opportunity to place multiple orders, and you can reduce your position or hedge after a sharp increase.

Market strategy: Sugar 2109 may fluctuate and stabilize in the short term, pay attention to the support situation near 5450. Short-term operation: hold more than 5% of the capital position, drop below 5450 and close the position. If the market goes down and stabilizes in the 5380-5420 area, you can consider the weak position to try more. If the market is under pressure near 5550, you can consider flattening more and reducing more. Band operation: wait and see, if the market stabilizes in the 5300-5400 area, it can be distributed to consider the layout of more orders on the center line. If the market rises near and above 5600, consider flat and more. Key short-term positions: 5440, 5500.

Market news: Li Keqiang: Do everything possible to ensure the supply and price stability of bulk commodities, and strive to prevent transmission to consumer prices. Ministry of Commerce: Deeply promote the upward trend of agricultural products and the downward trend of industrial products to help smooth the domestic cycle. The 2020/21 sugar refining period is as of the end of May 2021, and the total production of sugar in this sugar refining period nationwide was 10.6605 million tons (10.4072 million tons in the same period last year). As of the end of April in the 20/21 crushing season, China had imported 3.92 million tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 2.41 million tons. The Brazilian government agency issued a drought warning and is facing its worst drought in 91 years. Broker StoneX recently stated that the global sugar market is expected to shift from a shortage of this year to a small surplus in the 2021/22 season (October to September) as the increase in output in countries such as India and Thailand overwhelmed the decrease in output in Brazil, the main producer. The Indian Sugar Manufacturers Association previously stated that as of the end of May, almost all sugar mills in India had stopped squeezing. General Administration of Customs: my country imported 1.43 million tons of sugar from January to April, a year-on-year increase of 910,000 tons.

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