Futures: Soybean oil 2109 shot up and fell back on Friday, closing at 8912 (up 10), with a total of 921 Masukura hands and a slight increase in trading volume. The top 20 capital flows: Long positions are individually concentrated to increase positions, and positions increase, and concentration is enhanced; short positions are dispersed to increase and decrease positions, positions are stable, and concentration is fine-tuned. The Fed’s easing policy is expected to be tightened, but the domestic central bank cut its RRR by 0.5% on July 15, and domestic commodities have strengthened in the short term. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's supply and demand report slightly lowered the estimated value of US soybean oil stocks, and the short-term soybean oil rose, and the domestic soybean oil trend was stronger than the outer disk. In the soybean oil market, the bulls took the initiative to lighten up their positions and the market fell after the price rose. There may be pressure and fluctuations in the short-term. Pay attention to the initiative of funds near 8900, pay attention to the trend of the external market and changes in market expectations.

Strategic analysis: The central bank released the changes in economic indicators in June. The increase in social financial scale, the growth rate of money supply and the new renminbi loan quota were all significantly higher than expected. At the same time, the central bank lowered the RRR for the overall bullish commodities, external disks, supply and demand and market sentiment factors Comprehensively affect the market. On the supply side, imports of soybeans arrived at a high level in June and July, and the rainfall in North America was better than expected to suppress the price of US soybeans. In the July supply and demand report, the US soybeans were not adjusted in terms of planting area, yield, and inventory. In terms of demand, the operating rate of oil plants fell slightly behind and stabilized, and profit margins rebounded. Soybean oil stocks continued to increase, and demand was seasonally weak. Soybean oil continues to rise in the short-term, and the major cycle tends to be high and wide. Operational reference: After a sharp rise and over rise, you can choose an opportunity to place an empty order, and the market has fallen sharply to an important support area. You can choose an opportunity to place more orders.

Market strategy: Soybean oil 2109 may have short-term pressure and fluctuations, pay attention to the initiative of funds near 8900. Short-term operation: close the position and wait and see. If the market is under pressure in the 9000-9100 area, consider the light storage with a stop loss test. If the market goes down to the 8700-8800 area to stabilize, consider the light storage with a stop loss test. Band operation: wait and see, if the market is under pressure in the 9000-9150 area, consider a short test in the wet warehouse, and if the market stabilizes in the 8500-8650 area, consider a long test in the wet warehouse. Key short-term positions: 8800, 9000.

Market news: The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its July supply and demand report, and the global 2021/22 soybean year-end inventory is estimated to be raised to 94.49 million tons, and in June it is estimated to be 92.55 million tons; the global soybean production for 2021/22 is estimated to be 385.2 million tons, which was estimated at 385.52 million tons in June; all aspects of US soybeans were the same as in June. USDA: It is estimated that China's soybean imports in 2020/21 are expected to be 98 million tons, and the forecast in June is 100 million tons, which is a decrease of 0.53% from the previous year's 98.53 million tons; China's soybean imports in 2020/22 are expected to be 120 million tons, which is forecast in June Of 130 million tons, an increase of 5.10% year-on-year. Brazil’s Ministry of Commerce and Trade: As of May 17, Brazil’s average daily soybean exports in May was 880,000 tons, an increase of 25% from the same period last year, but slowed down from the first week of May, when the average export volume on Sunday exceeded 900,000 tons. . China Cereals and Oils Business Network: Domestic soybean oil stocks were 834,200 tons last weekend, a weekly increase of 47,500 tons, and 915,400 tons in the same period last year.

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