1. Price trend
Domestic polyester staple fiber futures fluctuated downward in August. On August 31, the average domestic spot market price of polyester staple fiber was 7,126 yuan/ton, down 3.82% from the price of 7410 at the beginning of the month and up 27.83% year-on-year. In the futures market, the main staple fiber futures (2201) on August 31 closed at 6930, down 6.63% from the beginning of the month.
The main reasons for the decline in domestic polyester staple fiber prices in August are: First, the decline in costs. International crude oil prices fluctuated and declined this month, and the price of PTA ethylene glycol, an upstream raw material for staple fiber, declined; second, insufficient demand. The downstream yarn weaving market demand is flat, and the domestic and foreign markets have declined. Under the influence of buying up but not buying down, the market will not change its wait-and-see attitude. Both manufacturers and merchants digest the previous inventory, or buy as they use it. Mainly, the transaction was light.
2. Factors affecting prices
The domestic PTA market dropped significantly in August. As of August 31, the average spot price was 4926 yuan/ton, down 11.11% from the beginning of the month and up 37.62% year-on-year. The futures market also weakened. On August 31, the settlement price of 2201, the main PTA futures, was 4968 yuan/ton, a month-on-month drop of 10.56%. In mid-to-late August, some PTA devices restarted, and supply pressure increased. Overlapping demand fell, PTA ended destocking in late August and began to accumulate inventory again. Near the end of August, PTA's main suppliers announced that the contracted supply in September will be supplied at 80%, and the supplier will reduce supply for the sixth consecutive month. OPEC+ began to increase production. In August, crude oil prices fell to a low in three months. Crude oil prices weakened and PTA cost-end price support weakened. Downstream polyester factories have poor production and sales and stocks have risen, leading manufacturers to jointly reduce production.
The overall ethylene glycol market weakened in August, and the price went down. The operating rate of ethylene glycol fluctuates at a low level, and the port inventory is low. In the early stage, due to the shrinking domestic demand of polyester plants and the sharp drop in crude oil, the demand for ethylene glycol is expected to fall, and the price will drop intermittently. The spot supply will decrease during the week. Part of the production equipment was converted to ethylene oxide, the supply side was tightened, crude oil jumped, coal prices rose again, and the weekend strengthened again. After the previous drop, the spot transaction center of ethylene glycol rebounded slightly. However, due to the short-term shutdown of the device, the overall impact time is relatively short, and it will eventually return to weak operation in the long-term.
In August, the domestic spot of pure polyester yarn was arranged sideways. In August, the spot price of pure polyester yarn fluctuated around 14450 yuan/ton, and a downward trend appeared near the end of the month. As of August 31, the spot price of pure polyester yarn in Shandong was 14375 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, a decrease of only 0.5 %about. Recently, the actual market in the middle and lower reaches of the market has not been ideal, and the demand has not made much breakthrough. The market sales volume is basically flat. The raw material procurement of the spinning mill is mainly based on rigid demand. The confidence is basically not high. The price of pure polyester yarn appears at the end of the month. Stable and fell slightly.
In September, some polyester staple fiber maintenance devices are planned to be restarted. Xinfengming's new production capacity of polyester staple fiber may reach production, and the supply pressure may increase. Downstream yarn weaving factories may be due to insufficient domestic demand and not many foreign orders, so the demand for polyester staple fiber continues to decline. However, polyester staple fiber factories have a strong willingness to limit production and maintain prices, and the downward momentum is weakened. Downstream domestic sales orders may be placed around the double festival or the demand may be improved. It is expected that polyester staple fiber will continue to maintain a weak and volatile trend in September, and pay attention to the recovery of crude oil prices and demand.
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