Trend analysis

In September, the nickel price first rose and then fell, showing an "n" trend. At the beginning of the month, the nickel price was 150,133.33 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the nickel price fell slightly to 146,566.67 yuan/ton. The overall decline was 2.38% and a year-on-year increase of 28.72%. The price of nickel has been fluctuating upwards since it fell to the lowest price of the year on April 21 this year to the highest price of 155,100 yuan/ton on September 10, and then the high level has been corrected.

Macro factors

The dollar fell early this month, boosting metal prices. In the second half of the year, the US inflation data was smaller than expected, the US dollar rebounded, and metal prices fell. Domestic August industrial added value fell to 5.3% less than expected.

Nickel Industry Chain

Supply aspect: In August, China & Indonesia's actual production of ferronickel totaled 118,800 tons, an increase of 1.98% month-on-month and 18.91% year-on-year. The main mining area of ​​the Philippines is about to enter the rainy season in October, the global shipping market is tight, and shipping costs have risen sharply; domestic ports are congested, ship demurrage is high, and the cost of raw materials for factories has increased.

In terms of imports: According to customs statistics, China’s nickel ore imports amounted to 5.777.1 million tons in August, an increase of 11.37% month-on-month and 53.43% year-on-year. China imported 349,700 tons of ferronickel in August, an increase of 24.40% month-on-month and 19.78% year-on-year. China imported 29243.762 tons of refined nickel in August, an increase of 30.18% month-on-month and 186.31% year-on-year. The export volume of refined nickel was 114.83 tons, a decrease of 54.73% month-on-month and 89.20% year-on-year.

Downstream: In September, 300 series stainless steel decreased by 12.97% to 1.28 million tons compared with August. Assuming that stainless steel maintains a high-intensity reduction in production in the fourth quarter, the annual nickel-iron gap will be 50,900 tons, and the supply and demand of nickel-iron will be in a relatively tight balance from September to October. In August, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in my country were 309,000 and 321,000 respectively, a year-on-year increase of 1.8 times; the installed capacity of power batteries was 12.6GWh, an increase of 144.9% year-on-year and an increase of 11.2% month-on-month.

To sum up: In September, nickel fundamentals changed. Nickel mines were as tight as ever. However, the dual control upgrades in many provinces in China and the downstream stainless steel industry reduced production, affecting more than 370,000 tons of production capacity. Nickel as a raw material is worried about surplus, and the price of nickel is concerned. Under pressure. In October, during the rainy season in the Philippines, the supply will be further tightened. Given the weak supply and demand, it is expected that the nickel price in October will fluctuate mainly between 140 million and 150 million yuan/ton.

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