Spot aluminum prices move down on the 10th

On November 12, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market was 19430 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.83% from the average market price of 18713.33 yuan/ton on November 11.

The current aluminum price has fallen below the previous high and volatile operating range. At this year's peak (October 19, 2021) aluminum ingot market average price of 124,240 yuan / ton, the recent half-month has dropped by 19.84%. Taking the average market price of aluminum ingots at the beginning of the year (January 1, 2021) at RMB 15,726.67/ton as the benchmark price, the cumulative increase has been reduced to 17.74%.

Supply side: Changes in domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity from January to October

From January to October, China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity dropped by 1.5 million tons per year.

620,000 tons of newly invested capacity, 370,000 tons per year in the first quarter, 220,000 tons per year in the second quarter, 30,000 tons per year in the third quarter, and no new production capacity from August to October;

From January to October, a total of 2.94 million tons of production was reduced. The first quarter was mainly due to the dual control of energy consumption, which led to a small amount of reduction in the production of electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Inner Mongolia. The monthly production reduction scale is close to 600,000 tons/year; from January to October, a total of 820,000 tons/year resumed. As aluminum prices continue to run at a high level, some production capacities that meet the conditions for resuming production have returned to the market, mainly Henan Hengkang Aluminum Among them, the early production reduction and late production resumption of some of the production capacity occurred during the year.

October demand

China exported 480,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in October 2021, compared with 492,000 tons in September. From January to October 2021, the cumulative export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 4.547 million tons, an increase of 14.3% year-on-year. In the week of November 5, the operating rate of aluminum profiles was 73.7%, which was the same week-on-week; the operating rate of aluminum strips was 81%, up 4% from the previous week; the operating rate of aluminum foil was 80.7%, and the week-on-month increase was 5.7 percentage points; the operating rate of aluminum alloy was 53.7. %, the week-on-week decline was 1.1 percentage points.

October new energy car data

According to the data released by the Passenger Car Association on November 8, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 368,000 in October, an increase of 6.3% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 148.1%. From January to October, the wholesale of new energy passenger vehicles was 2.381 million, a year-on-year increase of 204.3%. In addition, retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 321,000 in October, a year-on-year increase of 141.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 3.9%. From January to October, the retail sales of new energy vehicles was 2.139 million, a year-on-year increase of 191.9%.

Outlook is expected

The production and sales were booming in the early stage, and social inventories were running at a low level. After September, social inventories began to accumulate slightly. After the high aluminum ingot price, the downstream price transmission was slightly slow, and downstream demand was slightly reduced. Recently, aluminum prices have fallen, and downstream is still cautiously waiting and watching, and demand has not improved significantly. Coupled with the improvement of real estate expectations, real estate-related sector products have bottomed out. Recently, aluminum prices have relatively recovered, and the market outlook will wait and see cost support.

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