November spot aluminum prices fell by 6.66%
On November 30, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market was 18,876.67 yuan/ton, compared with the average market price of 20,223.33 yuan/ton on November 1, a month-on-month drop of 6.66%.
The current aluminum price has fallen below the previous high and fluctuating operating range. At this year's peak (October 19, 2021) aluminum ingot market average price of 124,240 yuan / ton, the recent cumulative decline has been 22.13%. Taking the average market price of aluminum ingots at the beginning of the year (January 1, 2021) at RMB 15,726.67/ton as the benchmark price, the cumulative increase has been reduced to 20.03%.
Weak cost support in November
1. The price of raw alumina moves down
In November, the price of raw alumina moved down. As of November 30, quotations in the northern market were 3430-3560 yuan/ton, and quotations in the southern market reached 3360-3410 yuan/ton. The specific regional prices are as follows:
The transaction price of alumina in Shanxi is 3430-3470 yuan/ton, Henan is 3460-3500 yuan/ton, Shandong is 3520-3560 yuan/ton, Guangxi is 3360-3400 yuan/ton, and Guizhou is 3390-3410 yuan/ton. . The Australian price of alumina FOB was 385 US dollars/ton, down 13 US dollars/ton, and Lianyungang alumina transaction price was 3460-3500 yuan/ton.
Looking at the monthly situation, alumina prices have entered a downward channel.
Aluminum Corporation of China Limited’s November 30, 2021 alumina spot contract prices in various regions are as follows: Shandong region offers 3,550 yuan/ton, Henan region offers 3,500 yuan/ton, Shanxi region offers 3,500 yuan/ton, and Guizhou region The external quotation is 3,500 yuan/ton, and the external quotation in Guangxi is 3,300 yuan/ton;
Compared with the November 1st, the spot alumina contract price was lowered by 600 yuan/ton, 650 yuan/ton, 650 yuan/ton, 450 yuan/ton, and 600 yuan/ton respectively.
2. Electricity costs have basically remained stable in some regions, discounts have been basically cancelled
On October 24, the "Opinions on the Complete and Accurate Implementation of the New Development Concept to Do a Good Job in Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality" issued by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council was released on the 24th. As the “1” in the “1+N” policy system of carbon peak carbon neutralization, the opinions are to conduct systematic planning and overall deployment for the major work of carbon peak carbon neutralization.
Dual control and other high energy consumption policies continue to be implemented. Most areas strictly implement the national electricity price policy, prohibit the introduction of preferential electricity price policies, and comprehensively clean up and cancel various forms of preferential electricity price policies and measures. Electricity prices are difficult to lower.
Overview of downstream demand in November
The downstream demand for aluminum strip, aluminum foil, and aluminum industrial materials is relatively stable, and the short-term delivery period for aluminum cables is stable. The relatively weak order demand segment is mainly concentrated in primary and recycled cast alloys, and aluminum building materials. Its operating rate has hardly seen a significant rebound in the past years.
Terminal consumption, real estate data, from January to October 2021, the area of new housing starts was 1,667,362,500 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 7.74%. In January-September 2021, the area of new houses completed was 572.9028 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 16.35%.
Social inventory fluctuates at a high level in November
In terms of social inventory, the domestic aluminum ingot spot inventory was 101.7 tons on November 25, compared with the 1.013 million tons of electrolytic aluminum in China's major consumer areas on November 4, a slight increase of 4,000 tons.
Review and forecast
Aluminum prices have fallen rapidly in the early stage, and recently prices have begun to bottom out and stabilized. However, the actual demand is still relatively normal, and social inventories are still high. It is expected to stabilize in the short term, but the upside will be narrowed. The operating range is 18500-19500 yuan/ton.
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