Cobalt prices rose sharply in November

In November, domestic cobalt prices fluctuated sharply and the overall cobalt market rebounded. As of November 30, the cobalt price was 448,900 yuan/ton, a sharp increase from the 410,200 yuan/ton cobalt price on November 1 at the beginning of the month, an increase of 9.43%.

The international cobalt price surge is good for the domestic cobalt market

Cobalt prices in the LME market rose sharply in November, MB cobalt prices rose sharply, and international cobalt prices rose, which is good for the domestic cobalt market, and the domestic cobalt market has increased momentum.

Mobile phone sales soared, cobalt market demand picks up

According to the mobile phone statistics of the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, in October 2021, the domestic market mobile phone shipments were 33.575 million units, a year-on-year increase of 28.4%. From January to October 2021, the total domestic market mobile phone shipments totaled 282 million units. A year-on-year increase of 12.0%. In October, mobile phone shipments ushered in a small explosion, the mobile phone market rebounded, and demand in the cobalt market rose.

October ternary precursor exports decreased month-on-month

In October 2021, China’s export volume of ternary precursors was 12,767 tons (including NCA), a decrease of 8.8% month-on-month and an increase of 28% year-on-year. The export volume of ternary precursors in October decreased compared with September, mainly because part of the export volume in October was advanced to September for delivery. At present, the consumer demand for new energy vehicles in Europe and the United States is still rising. In the fourth quarter, the leading Korean ternary materials companies have increased their purchase orders for precursors. It is expected that the export volume of ternary precursors will increase from November to December. The demand for ternary materials continues to rise, and the demand for cobalt is rising, and the momentum for rising cobalt prices is increasing.

The installed capacity of ternary batteries rose month-on-month

According to the latest data released by the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in terms of output, in October 2021, the output of ternary batteries was 9.2GWh, accounting for 36.6% of the total output, a year-on-year increase of 93.5%, and a decrease of 4.5% from the previous month; in terms of vehicle loading, 2021 In October 2010, a total of 7.0GWh of ternary batteries were installed, an increase of 104.3% year-on-year and 13.5% month-on-month. The output of ternary batteries decreased, and the proportion of installed capacity of ternary batteries rose month-on-month; the market for ternary batteries was strong, and lithium iron phosphate batteries were weak. The cold winter is approaching, the lithium iron phosphate battery is limited or the installed capacity further declines, and the installed capacity of the ternary battery maintains growth, which is positive for the market outlook of the cobalt market.

Cobalt mine production is expected to increase

In May, Glencore Co., Ltd. reported that the Mutada SX-EW mine restarted, and it is expected that the mine will be put into operation by the end of the year. The project is expected to restore 20,000 tons of cobalt production per year. China Molybdenum Co., Ltd. has begun plans to increase its production capacity at Tenke Fungurume by 17,000 tons/year by 2023. As of July, the expansion project is in the pre-commissioning stage, and the mine will increase global supply by 24,000 tons/year. The restart and expansion plan of the cobalt mine has increased the supply of the cobalt market and increased the pressure on the price of cobalt to fall.

New energy sales increased significantly

According to the latest data released by the China Automobile Association, my country's new energy production and sales continued to break new records in October. In October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in my country were 397,000 and 383,000 respectively, a year-on-year increase of 1.3 times. From January to October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 2.566 million and 2.542 million respectively, a year-on-year increase of 1.8 times. The production and sales of new energy vehicles have increased significantly, which is positive for the cobalt market; new energy vehicle companies have increased orders for lithium batteries, and the demand for cobalt is expected to explode in 22 years.

Market summary

In the global market, the international cobalt price has risen sharply, stimulating the rise of the domestic cobalt market; in terms of domestic exports, the export of ternary materials briefly declined in October, but the long-term demand for ternary materials continued to increase, and the momentum for rising cobalt prices remained. On the supply side, the cobalt mine restarted the production plan to increase the supply of cobalt ore; on the demand side, the shipment of mobile phones increased sharply, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased sharply and reached a record high, the proportion of ternary battery installed capacity increased month-on-month, and the cold winter was approaching ternary The proportion of battery installed or regained part of the land lost increased. In general, the international cobalt price surge stimulates the domestic cobalt market. The market is optimistic about the future of the cobalt market. Both supply and demand in the cobalt market will increase. The cobalt market inventory is severely destocked. The cobalt market inventory is low. The cobalt market supply is slightly less than the demand. Large, the cobalt price is expected to fluctuate and rise in the future.

Related listed companies: Huayou Cobalt (603799), Hanrui Cobalt (300618), Luoyang Molybdenum (603993).

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