Copper prices rose first and then fell last week. As of the end of last week, the spot copper price was 69,820 yuan/ton, down 0.01% from 69,826.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and up 17.64% year-on-year.

Macroscopic aspect: A week before the New Year's Day, the energy problem in Europe was fermenting, the natural gas prices in many European countries continued to soar, the high electricity prices caused supply disruption concerns, and non-ferrous metals rose. The Fed's meeting on interest rates has landed, and the short-term negative interest has been exhausted.

In terms of supply and demand: the end of downstream power and production restrictions is mostly to digest previous orders. In November, the operating rate of copper cables rose to 85.55%, an increase of 5.10 percentage points from the previous month, a new high for the year, and the year-on-year decline also narrowed. It is expected that the operating rate of cables will decline again in December. The current copper inventory remains low, but downstream consumption has entered the off-season, and the willingness to receive goods is not high. In the first quarter of CSPT, the TC was higher than the long-term Xiehe spot, and the domestic supply and demand tended to loosen. At present, the domestic inventory is expected to accumulate.

To sum up: short-term inventories are low, supporting copper prices. However, in the off-season of demand, it is difficult for copper prices to rise sharply. It is expected that the short-term copper price will remain volatile.

Relevant listed companies: Jiangxi Copper (600362), Tongling Nonferrous Metals (000630), Yunnan Copper (000878).

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