Price trend

According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, as of January 12, 2022, the average ex-factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was 9,066 RMB/ton, compared with the price on January 9 (the average reference price of n-butanol was 9,866 RMB/ton), it was lowered by 666 RMB/ton, a decrease of 8.11%; compared with the price on January 1 (the average reference price of n-butanol was 8,300 RMB/ton), the average price was raised by 766 RMB/ton, an increase of 9.24%.

Analysis review

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of SunSirs that after New Year's Day, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong rose significantly. At the end of last week, the average ex-factory price of n-butanol in Shandong rose to 9,866 RMB/ton, and some high prices exceeded 10,000 RMB/ton. At the end of last week, downstream users' enthusiasm for purchasing high-priced raw materials declined, the resistance grew, and the market transaction at high prices was slow. Entering this week, starting from the beginning of the week (10th), the n-butanol market declined, factory quotations were lowered one after another, and the market center of gravity was downward under pressure. As of the 12th, it had been declining for three consecutive days. The ex-factory price of n-butanol in Shandong referred to around 9,000-9,200 RMB/ton, and it had been reduced by 800-1,000 RMB/ton in the three days, a decrease of 6.76%. As of the 12th, after the market price of n-butanol had dropped sharply, the downstream demand had not increased significantly, the execution of orders was cautious, and the overall transaction in the market was still relatively deserted.

In terms of index, the n-butanol (industrial grade) commodity index on January 11 was 76.09, the same as previous day, a decrease of 42.26% from the highest point in the cycle of 131.79 points (2021-05-16), and an increase of 154.57% from the lowest point of 29.89 points on November 30, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to the present).

In terms of upstream propylene, last week, the domestic propylene market in Shandong went up. Entering this week, the propylene market in the mountainous area was running in shock. On the 10th, the propylene market in Shandong fell as a whole and then adjusted back on the 11th. As of the 11th, according to the data monitoring of SunSirs, the average ex-factory price of propylene in Shandong was 7,800.80 RMB/ton, an overall increase of 3.34% compared with the beginning of the month.

Market outlook

At present, the n-butanol factories have strong willingness to take the initiative to take orders, and downstream users mainly purchase on demand. The high and low price difference in the market gradually reduces, and the supply and demand side shows little support for the n-butanol market. The butanol data engineer of SunSirs believes that in the short term, the n-butanol market in Shandong is relatively weak, and it is not ruled out that the price of some factories with high quotations may still drop. Specifically, it is needed to pay more attention to the basic changes in supply and demand.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.