Price trend

According to the data of SunSirs, the average price of the domestic aluminum ingot market in East China on March 8 was 22,733.33 RMB/ton, a daily decrease of 4.78%, a year-on-year increase of 29.83%, and an increase of 0.77% compared with the market average price of 22,560 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month (3.1). Compared with the price of 20,370 RMB/ton at the beginning of the year (January 1), it increased by 11.60%.

Analysis reviewTaking the peak in 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingots was 24,240 RMB/ton, and the recent deviation from the peak dropped by 6.22%. Starting from the recent recovery (December 13, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingots was 18,693.33 RMB/ton, an increase of 21.62%.

Recently, the overseas non-ferrous sector has been significantly hyped by funds, especially the demon "nickel", and the malicious capital squeeze operation is obvious. From the perspective of the fundamentals of aluminum ingots, the current supply and demand side is still in a situation of internal looseness and external tightness; domestically, the domestic mainstream social inventory in terms of inventory is 1.18 million tons, which continues to accumulate in the warehouse.

Overseas, energy prices in Western Europe have risen, raising the cost of electrolytic aluminum production, and expectations of production reductions; the export of Russian aluminum ingots is affected by geopolitical factors, and the possibility of trade with Europe has declined. The annual production of electrolytic aluminum in Rusal is about 4 million tons, of which about 80% are used for export.

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