Price trend

Spot price: The spot price of domestic polyester staple fiber rebounded slightly this week (3.21-3.25). According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber was quoted at about 7,992 RMB/ton on March 25, an increase of 0.40% compared with the price at the beginning of the week and an increase of 10.01% year-on-year.

Futures market: This week, staple fiber PF futures showed a slight fluctuation and upward trend. On March 25, the main contract of staple fiber PF futures closed at 7,942 RMB/ton, up 200 RMB/ton or 2.58% from last week's closing price. The settlement price was 7,836 RMB/ton; the open interest was 111,828 lots, the open interest increased by 9,588 lots, and the basis was 50. This week, the domestic staple fiber upstream raw material futures prices were mixed, with the main force of PTA up 4.65%, and the main force of ethylene glycol down 1.03%.

Analysis review

Influencing factors: 1. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continued this week, worrying about supply, and international crude oil prices fluctuated and rose. On March 25, WTI New York crude oil CFD closed at around 110 US dollars/barrel (as of 17:00). Driven by Biden's visit to Europe over the weekend, there were differences on the sanctions and embargo against Russia, which affected crude oil prices to fall, and US oil rose about 6% for the week; 2. This week, the cost of PTA benefited from the rise in international oil prices, the maintenance of PTA plants increased, and the downstream was affected by the epidemic control, the start of construction declined, and the enthusiasm for purchasing PTA was general; 3. The ethylene glycol supply was still under pressure this week, the port inventory remained high, and the overall production and sales performance of the downstream market was light; 4. This week, the domestic pure polyester yarn and polyester-cotton yarn market maintained a trend of consolidation, with light sales and accumulation of inventory. As of March 25, the average market price of pure polyester yarn remained at last week's price of 14,475 RMB/ton; the average market price of polyester-cotton yarn remained at last week's price of 21,420 RMB/ton; 5. The main reason for the rebound of polyester staple fiber this week was the rebound in the price of main raw materials. Affected by the spread of the epidemic in many places across the country, the logistics of the industry chain was greatly impacted, and downstream procurement was not smooth.

Market outlook

In the short term, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues, oil prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall, and the cost-side support of polyester staple fiber is strong. It is expected that polyester staple fiber will show a strong shock trend in the short term. Pay close attention to the situation in Russia and Ukraine, epidemic control and changes in raw material prices.

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