Futures: on Wednesday, the market of coke2001 fluctuated and adjusted, closing at 1,712.5 (down 6), reducing more than 6,000 positions a day and reducing trading volume. Top 20 capital flows: both sides of the long and short positions increase or decrease positions in a decentralized way, and individual positions are reduced in a centralized way. The positions are slightly reduced, and the concentration degree is weakened. El Nino affects the deviation of meteorological conditions in autumn and winter, which is not conducive to the diffusion of air pollutants. The Yangtze River Delta and Fenwei plain have issued air pollution control plans, and the screw steel has driven the coke rebound to bear pressure and shock. Recently, the weather warning has been lifted many times, and the start-up has picked up. Last week, the coke port inventory decreased slightly, but the overall level is still high, the supply is relatively sufficient, the pressure above is still large, and the coke is generally weak and fluctuated.

Spot: the coke market was weak and stable yesterday, and the transaction was average. Quotation for quasi first grade metallurgical coke: 1,720 RMB/ ton for Rizhao Port, 1,600 RMB/ ton for Linfen and 1,810 RMB/ ton for Tangshan. In terms of coke enterprises, after the second round of raising and lowering, the profits of coke enterprises were relatively thin, the coke enterprises in the main production area started to operate at a high level as a whole, part of the inventory was still increased, the enthusiasm of downstream procurement was weak, and some coke enterprises delivered goods in the market due to inventory pressure and price exceeding. In terms of steel plants, the raw material inventory of steel plants is at many middle and high levels. It is expected that the overall demand will be weakened near the off-season, and the pace of procurement will be slowed down. Some steel plants in Handan area will raise and reduce the coke by 50 RMB/ ton in the third round, and the short-term coke market is expected to be weak and stable.

Brief strategy: Coke2001 or weak shock, pay attention to market expectations, fund sentiment, inventory changes and environmental impact, and prevent centralized increase and decrease of funds.

Strategic analysis: at present, the global economy is under great pressure, and the trade consultation has made periodic progress; the government has strengthened macro-control, strictly controlled real estate, increased infrastructure and guaranteed the economy, and the currency is loose. In recent days, the weather warning of pollution in many areas was lifted, the output of finished timber remained high, the supply pressure was heavy, the strong demand led to the gradual decline of building materials inventory, the Fenwei plain and the Yangtze River Delta issued the air pollution control plan in autumn and winter, and the thread took advantage of the situation to increase. The high inventory of coke is difficult to alleviate in a short period of time. This year, El Nino will affect the deviation of weather conditions in autumn and winter, which is not conducive to the diffusion of air pollutants. The impact of production restriction and tightening on steel plants is greater than that of coking plants, and the raw materials will be weaker than the finished products.

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