Commodity market:
According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the Shanghai rubber market fluctuated slightly on March 28, closing at 13410 yuan / ton, down about 70 yuan / ton from the 25th, and the spot price was adjusted with the market; The average spot market price of domestic natural rubber (standard I) in East China market was 12914RMB/ton, a slight decrease of 0.34% compared with the previous trading day and a year-on-year decrease of 3.9%.
Key points of analysis:
Supply side: in March, the global supply was at the lowest point of the year, and Southeast Asia stopped production; China: the weather conditions in Yunnan Province are good. The cutting this year is about 20 days ahead of the previous year. On the 17th, the cutting has been carried out in Menghan, Menglun, Mengpeng, Mengman and other areas in Xishuangbanna, Yunnan Province. The cutting will be carried out in an all-round way after the water sprinkling Festival. In Hainan production area, the fallen leaves of rubber trees are better than that in the early stage, and the new leaves around Wuzhishan and Qionghai are still growing. Under normal weather conditions, it is expected to start cutting in mid April. Demand side: according to the latest data released by the National Bureau of statistics, China's tire output from January to February decreased by 5.2% over the same period last year to 124.18 million. Recently, the whole country has been affected by the epidemic. Tire enterprises in Shandong have arranged to stop production and limit production, mainly control inventory, and partially implement closed measures to cooperate with epidemic prevention. The current economic situation is complex, the global auto industry continues to be depressed, and the shortage of auto chips has not been solved for a long time; At the same time, affected by the sharp rise of international crude oil, the price of domestic refined oil continues to rise, and the cost pressure caused by the high oil price leads to the high demand for electric vehicles. Under this influence, the demand for natural rubber is bound to be promoted in the future; However, in the short term, the epidemic prevention and control in many places in Shandong is still strict, the restrictions on the transportation and delivery of goods to regions are increased, the cost is increased, and the inventory pressure of finished products is large. In terms of inventory: it is reported that the current rubber inventory in Qingdao is low month on month, the production in Southeast Asia is stopped, and the opening and cutting volume in Yunnan production area is gradually increasing. The inventory elimination of rubber inventory in Qingdao has begun. At present, the domestic inventory is in a state where the outbound volume is greater than the inbound volume, the arrival volume of natural rubber is reduced, and the inventory is in a de inventory state. Import and export: the data show that in January 2022, China's tire export volume was 591700 tons, up 4.03% month on month and 9.89% year-on-year. In February, China's tire export volume was 414600 tons, down 29.94% month on month and 5.91% year-on-year. At present, domestic tire export orders are relatively stable. According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of statistics, China's cumulative output of synthetic rubber from January to February was 1.162 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.1%.
Future forecast:
Macroscopically, the impact of economic inflation and geopolitical conflict will continue, and crude oil will remain high. The demand for finished products in the downstream is not stable due to the spread of the epidemic situation, and the demand for finished products is not good. However, the demand for finished products in the downstream is not good, and the inventory of finished products is not good. With the continuous increase in the amount of domestic rubber, it is expected that the short-term natural rubber market will continue to be weak and volatile. In the medium term, pay attention to the development of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the situation of epidemic prevention and control, and the impact of the rapid growth of electric vehicle demand on tire demand and natural rubber demand.
If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.