Price trend

According to the bulk list data of SunSirs, toluene rose broadly in the first ten days of this month and then fell, and the price rebounded slightly in the second ten days of this month. The price of toluene was 7410.2RMB/ton on March 1 and 7690RMB/ton on March 30, an increase of 3.78% over the beginning of the month; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 39.15%.

Analysis and comment

Due to geopolitical factors, crude oil showed an overall upward trend this month. Driven by the rise in cost, toluene rose broadly in the first ten days of the month. Due to the increasing cost pressure, some refineries have reduced the burden. Since the middle of the year, the impact of domestic public health events has deepened, the logistics and transportation in many places have been affected, the shipment of enterprises has been blocked, the price of gasoline and diesel has decreased widely, the parking of downstream devices has been superimposed, the demand is poor, and the mentality of operators has turned empty. Although crude oil broke through US $120 / barrel again, the rebound range of toluene was limited, and the price fell again with the decline of crude oil.

In terms of external market, the overall price of toluene in Asia rose broadly this month. On March 28, the price of toluene imported from South Korea was US $1060 / ton, up US $116 / ton, or 12.29%.

In terms of crude oil, affected by the uncertainty of geopolitical situation, crude oil showed an overall upward trend this month and the price fluctuated widely. The United States and its allies discussed sanctions on Russian energy, deepening market concerns about supply risks. As of March 28, Brent rose 11.49 USD / barrel, or 11.38%; WTI rose $10.24/barrel, or 10.7%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China first rose and then fell this month, and rose again in the last ten days. At the beginning of the month, the price of domestic goods was 19050RMB/ton, and at the end of the month, the price was 19775RMB/ton, an increase of 3.81% over the beginning of the month and 18.06% over the same period last year.

In the PX market, the overall domestic PX price rose broadly this month, with the price at 8200RMB/ton at the beginning of the month and 9300RMB/ton at the end of the month. The price increased by 13.41% compared with the beginning of the month and 38.81% compared with the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, the price of gasoline in Shandong Province fell continuously after a shock rise in the first ten days of this month, and the price fell broadly compared with last month. The price was 9499.2RMB/ton at the beginning of the month and 8809.4RMB/ton at the end of the month, down 7.26% from the beginning of the month and up 26.81% from the same period last year.

Future forecast

On the cost side, due to the uncertainty of geopolitical situation, the short-term trend of crude oil still fluctuates greatly. Domestic public health events may inhibit oil prices in the short term. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the relationship between global crude oil supply and demand, OPEC + decisions on output, the inventory dynamics of US crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

The geopolitical situation shows signs of easing, but there is still uncertainty. The wide fluctuation of crude oil will continue to affect the trend of toluene. Severe domestic public health events, limited demand for toluene and transportation, are bad for the price of toluene in the later stage. On the whole, toluene will continue to follow the trend of crude oil and may go down. Pay attention to the impact of crude oil market, external market trend, toluene plant dynamics, port inventory and downstream demand on toluene price.

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